easyMarksman

The NBA Search Engine

2007-10-23T20:42:00.000-04:00

Looking for a search engine specifically devoted to the NBA? And NBA blogs in particular? Well, give the NBA search engine a try.

2007 Fantasy Basketball Previews

2007-07-09T21:14:00.000-04:00

It's that time of year again. Yes, it's already time to think about utterly dominating your fantasy basketball league. Over at Give Me The Rock, Nels and I will be pumping out fantasy previews over the course of the summer, from worst to first. What they lack in "facts" and "insight" are more than made up for with gratuitous hardcore nudity.

Eastern Conference

Atlantic
Boston Celtics
New Jersey Nets
New York Knicks
Philadelphia 76ers
Toronto Raptors

Central
Chicago Bulls
Cleveland Cavaliers
Detroit Pistons
Indiana Pacers
Milwaukee Bucks

Southeast
Atlanta Hawks
Charlotte Bobcats
Miami Heat
Orlando Magic
Washington Wizards

Western Conference

Southwest
Dallas Mavericks
Houston Rockets
Memphis Grizzlies
New Orleans Hornets
San Antonio Spurs

Northwest
Denver Nuggets
Minnesota Timberwolves
Portland Trail Blazers
Seattle SuperSonics
Utah Jazz

Pacific
Golden State Warriors
Los Angeles Clippers
Los Angeles Lakers
Phoenix Suns
Sacramento Kings

Hakeem "The Dream" Olajuwons' Greatest Hits

2007-01-21T17:04:00.001-05:00

"It takes a big man to admit he made a mistake. And I am that big man"

-Michael Scott, The Office

Ok, ok, I admit that I’m not always right all the time every time. I may have called Hakeem Olajuwon “boring” in this post on the 20 greatest fantasy seasons since 1979. And good old “Anonymous” called me on it in the comments. See, that kind of thing happens when you try to summarize the last 25 years of fantasy basketball in 1,000 words or less. Everyone appears boring when juxtaposed against Michael Jordan and Dominique Wilkins. Plus, unfairly or not, I will forever have the aged and creaky 2000-2002 Olajuwon stuck in my mind when I think of The Dream.

The truth is that Olajuwon was anything but boring. And to make amends for that misstatement, I offer you the following Olajuwon video, which showcases everything his game had to offer. Those power blocks, power dunks, that sweet jumper, his great footwork, and those quick, guard-like hands. Experience 10 minutes of “The Dream”. And watch for the insane block at 8:14 – it’s my favorite part of the video.

2006 Fantasy Basketball Previews

2006-07-28T19:19:00.000-04:00

This summer, at Give Me The Rock, Nels and I are writing fantasy previews for all 30 teams in a slick team-by-team format. It should be required reading for every 6th grader in the county. I'll keep a running update of the teams reviewed so far:

Updated: 10/30

EAST
Atlantic
Boston Celtics
New Jersey Nets
New York Knicks
Philadelphia 76ers
Toronto Raptors

Central
Chicago Bulls
Cleveland Cavaliers
Detroit Pistons
Indiana Pacers
Milwaukee Bucks

Southeast
Atlanta Hawks
Charlotte Bobcats
Miami Heat
Orlando Magic
Washington Wizards

WEST
Southwest
Dallas Mavericks
Houston Rockets
Memphis Grizzlies
New Orleans Hornets
San Antonio Spurs

Northwest
Denver Nuggets
Minnesota Timberwolves
Portland Trail Blazers
Seattle SuperSonics
Utah Jazz

Pacific
Golden State Warriors
Los Angeles Clippers
Los Angeles Lakers
Phoenix Suns
Sacramento Kings

Effective Free Throw Percentage

2006-06-24T21:43:00.000-04:00

Note: As usual, this article first appeared on Give Me The Rock. Check out that sweet site.

A couple of months ago, I took a shot at measuring the effect that free throw percentages have on fantasy teams. Both my mother and grandmother said it was the greatest thing they ever read short of Die Verwandlung. At the time, I ran the results for the 2006 season up through the current date (January), but now with the regular season over, we can look back at the results for the entire year.

The basic gist of the process is to weight the contribution of a player’s free throw percentage based upon the number of free throws he attempts per game compared to the league average. This puts every player on a level playing field so to speak, by adjusting each player’s percentage to what it would have to be if they attempted a league average number of free-throws (resulting in an effective free throw percentage, or EFT%). The more free throws a player attempts either above or below average, the more their EFT% will deviate from their actual FT%.

This mysterious “league” I keep referring to is the top 150 fantasy players for 2006, which jives with many of the common fantasy leagues out there (no crying if you play in something crazy like a 4 team league; take your all star roster and go home). And if you feel like reading more about EFT%, you can look at this previous article (complete with everyone’s favorite… formulas!)

And the results? Here are the top rated players in terms of EFT% for 2006.

Highest EFT% for 2006

There are basically two types of players on this list, those who shoot fewer free throws at a high percentage (Allen, Peja, Nash) and those who shoot a lot at a slightly lower percentage (Kobe, Redd, Iverson). And then there is Dirk Nowitzki. In January, it was Billups who was running with an EFT% above 100, at the end of the season it’s Dirk with a percentage of 102. Will this, coupled with his playoff performance to date and that classic stoic German demeanor… ahem, I meant stoic demeanor, result in “Dirk: Fantasy Monster” next season? Color me interested.

As far as a fantasy strategy, it is the guys with the lower percentages who shoot a lot who you should be aiming for. Many of your lesser informed opponents look at a player like Nash and see that shiny free throw percentage, with little regard to how many he actually takes. Also, by loading up your team with guys who shoot a lot of free throws and shoot them well, you will also diffuse the effect of guys with bad EFT%, much like those guys on the list below.

Lowest EFT% for 2006

A list full of big men and… Gerald Wallace? Well, there you go. Guys like Duncan, Howard, and the Wallaces are all going to end up on someone’s team, so again, having a few players with a high EFT% will help diffuse one or two of the guys on the list above. Shaq is a well known (and deserved) category killer. This list pretty much shows why. Ben Wallace, while shooting a worse percentage than Shaq, gets a pardon by only averaging 3.6 free throws a game.

By the way, if anyone has won a roto league with Shaq primarily involved, I would love to hear how it went down.

A Note About Field Goal Percentage:
Everything written about EFT% also applies to EFG%. However, the range of field goal percentages and the number shots attempted from the field (average of 11.5, std dev of 4.2) varies less than the number of free throws attempted (average of 4.2, std dev of 2.3), so EFG% stays fairly close to the standard FG% and is much less interesting to talk about. For example, Tracy McGrady, who took over 21 shots a game and made 40.6% of them, has an EFG% of 36.6%. For the most part, EFG% only varies about a percentage point or two from FG%.

The Top 20 Fantasy Seasons Ever*

2006-05-24T08:51:00.000-04:00

Please Note: I originally posted this article in 2 parts at Give Me the Rock, Part 1 here and Part 2 here. I'd advised you to check out GMTR for this article and other cool stuff by Nels.

While waiting for LeBron to drive to the basket AGAIN, I thought I’d start out my time at Give Me the Rock with the audacious task of ranking the top 20 greatest fantasy seasons of all time (and by proxy, the top fantasy players of all time). But as my momma always said, “go f**king balls out, or don’t go at all bitch”. I might be paraphrasing there.

I’ll keep this part short, but I basically created standardized rankings for every player in each season from 1979-1980 through 2006 (the years of available statistics). The scores were calculated on a per game basis and based upon a 10 team, 8 (and 9) category roto league, which means that I ranked players both with and without turnovers included. Including turnovers didn’t have that much effect on the results, so in the final results, I left them out. Only two players who fell in the top 50 were particularly affected when including turnovers. Who are they? Kudos to you if you can guess. I’ll tell you in the part 2 of this article. Players with less than 10 games played were not ranked (bye 2005 Ron Artest) and adjusted for games played (bye 1981 Magic Johnson).

Let’s start the countdown with the 11-20 ranked fantasy seasons since 1979-1980. Ratings in parenthesis.

11. Michael Jordan, 1987, (9.5)
12. Michael Jordan, 1991, (9.2)
13. Magic Johnson, 1989, (9.0)
14. David Robinson, 1994, (8.9)
15. Kevin Garnett, 2004, (8.7)
16. David Robinson, 1995, (8.6)
17. Larry Bird, 1983, (8.6)
18. Kobe Bryant, 2003, (8.5)
19. Hakeem Olajuwon, 1994, (8.5)
20. David Robinson, 1991, (8.4)

Michael Jordan, as you can imagine, shows up again in the top 10, so I won’t spend too much time on him. Surprisingly, Magic’s highest showing is at number 13. Seeing how he was a triple-double machine, I expected to see him higher. Magic’s 1989 season was his finest fantasy wise, where he averaged 22.5 points, 7.9 rebounds, and 12.8 assists (take that Steve Nash!). He also shot 91% from the free throw line. It was his blocks (only 0.3 a game in 1989) that kept him from being ranked higher that year and throughout his career.

David Robinson’s best season was in 1994, when he averaged just about 30 points a game. He also shows up at number 16 and 20. I knew Robinson was great player, but the only fantasy game I was playing back then was final fantasy, so I had no idea what a fantasy monster he was for about 6 years. Interestingly enough, his stats mimic those more recently of Tim Duncan, although Robinson’s free-throw percentage was actually pretty decent.

I think that it’s safe to say that Kevin Garnett peaked as a fantasy player in 2004. Am I assuming too much saying that it’s downhill from here? Larry Bird is another guy you might be seeing again, so we’ll skip over him for now. Kobe, Kobe, Kobe. There was a lot of talk about his scoring this year (he ended up with a 7.8 rating, which puts his 2006 at #30), but he was actually better in 2003. That made me a little curious, so I compared his 2003 to 2006. FT%, FG% were exactly the same. He also hit more 3’s and scored 5 points more a game in 2006. It was his assists, steals, and blocks this year that all went down from his career averages (and way down since 2003). Obviously, not playing with Shaq could be a cause for the drop. But, the jury’s still out on the Kobe “scoring machine” era and whether it will be a net positive or net negative on his fantasy game. He’ll make an interesting fantasy pick next year.

Finally, Olajuwon did all the things that a boring franchise big man should do and in 1994 he had a year where everything came together and won an MVP, a finals MVP, and a championship for his trouble.

So, that is the rundown from 11 to 20. Coming next, the top 10.

Part 1 of this article looked at the top 11 - 20 fantasy seasons of the past 26 years, with notable guest appearances by Magic Johnson, David Robinson, Kevin Garnett, and Kobe Bryant. Now, here is the rest of the list, only with a cool top 10 countdown this time (as before, standardized scores in parenthesis).

10. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, 1980, (9.6)
9. Michael Jordan, 1993, (9.7)
8. Hakeem Olajuwon, 1993, (10.0)
7. Larry Bird, 1985, (11.2)
6. Michael Jordan, 1990, (11.3)
5. Larry Bird, 1988, (11.5)
4. Larry Bird, 1986, (11.6)
3. Michael Jordan, 1989, (11.6)
2. Michael Jordan, 1988, (11.7)
1. Larry Bird, 1987, (11.9)

Hmmm. There are two things on this list not like the others… I wonder what they are?

Oh, what could have been? Abdul-Jabbar had some truly awesome looking seasons from 70 – 78, but since we’re only going back to the 79-80 season, it looks like he’ll have to live with #10. Even at 32, Abdul-Jabbar was able to average 24.8/10.8/4.5 and shoot 60% from the field with 3.4 blocks a game. Too bad all I remember of Kareem is a dorky old bald guy with short shorts who decided to sport some slick alienish looking goggles on the court.

Hakeem Olajuwon, last seen with the 19th best season, makes the list again with his 1993 season. He basically averaged slightly more blocks and rebounds in 1993 than in 1994. And that’s all I have to say about Olajuwon.

Remember the video game, Jordan vs. Bird? I loved the slam dunk contest… HERE COMES A DOCTOR J! Anyway, the list finishes off with a little Jordan vs. Bird action. They both appear four times, basically trading off spots (Jordan at 2, 3, 6, and 9 and Bird at 1, 4, 5, and 7). Jordan, version 1988 to 1990, averaged about 34/7/7 with 3 steals and close to a block a game. On the other hand, Larry Legend, version 1985 to 1988, averaged 28/9.5/7 with a crazy amount of 3’s (for the time) and close to 2 steals and a block a game. Bird is also the ONLY player in the past 2+ decades to have positive contributions in each of the 8 categories, which is basically saying that he was better than the average fantasy starter in every facet of the game. And he did it not only once, which still would have been amazing, but three different years (1983, 1985, and 1987). That’s just insane.

So, there are the top 20 fantasy seasons of recent history. I’ll play out the question of Jordan vs. Bird later. Maybe a little game of one-one-one would settle it?

Oh, and I said I would tell you which two top 50 players were really hurt by including turnovers in the calculations. They would be Magic Johnson and Charles Barkley.

*Ever means since 1979.

An Offer I Couldn't Refuse

2006-05-14T11:56:00.000-04:00

For all my millions of readers out there (ahem...) I just wanted to throw a shout out to Give Me the Rock, the blog I'll be now spending most of my time writing for. After communicating with Nels, it was clear that I could accomplish more (and be more motivated) as part of a team than by myself. My 61 posts in 2 years to Nels' 300ish makes that fairly obvious.

I still may stop in here from time to time, to throw out especially arcane or involved analysis that will most likely interest nobody. Or maybe when Nels wises up to my shit and kicks me off his blog. So, that's a good reason to check back in, right?

Until then, if you are actually reading this, than I would advise checking out Give Me the Rock for stuff that's at least 2.5 times better than this.

Peace.

The Clippers

2006-04-23T01:09:00.000-04:00

I'm short on interesting analysis, but watching the Denver/Clippers games, and I gots to say that Kaman's hair is freaking the shit out of me. It's a mullet out of freakin control.

Baseball Playoffs

2006-04-23T00:58:00.000-04:00

In addition to being a basketball fan - I also enjoy a good baseball game. Before I write anything else about the playoffs (which is few and far between, I know), here is a baseball article that I found interesting.

Basketball on Paper... or the Screen

2006-04-12T21:24:00.000-04:00

Two months later and what do I have to show for it? Besides guiding two fantasy teams to disappointing third place finishes (due to a severe lack of Mojo and the curse of Grant Hill), half-starting a bunch of not interesting enough fantasy basketball analysis, drinking a lot of Sam Adams White Ale, and not posting on this blog, I've been spending time reading Dean Oliver's Basketball on Paper. Yes, you might be thinking, I typically enjoy reading all my books at least 4 years after they've been published. I ran across it at a discount store in my area called Mardens and picked it up for a couple of bucks. That usually does not bode well for the quality of a publication, but in this case it likely speaks more to the niche of the fantasy basketball analyst. Yes, we walk a lonely path.

Anyway, Basketball on Paper was definitely a good read. Of course, I was most interested in Oliver's chapters on team and player evaluation, and I thought his defensive player evaluation was particularly enlightening. He was able to conceptualize a lot of the thoughts I had on player evaluation but was never took the time or effort to work through. Not too surprisingly, he pushes a lot of his formulas and methodology to the back of the book and leaves the most complex stuff out entirely. Understandable. I guess he actually wanted to SELL some of these books. Unfortunately, that was also the stuff I happened to be most interested in. Which leads to what I thought was the weak point of the book; Oliver spreads the net wide, attempting to make the book applicable to just about everyone - fans, coaches, contact negotiators, players, statisticians (he lays all those groups out and more in the introduction). In doing so, the tone of the book bounces around from chapter to chapter. In particular, when he attempts to explain the value of analytical evaluation coaches, Oliver appears to enthusiastically downplay its importance to the overall scope of the game. My thoughts during those chapters; “if it's not important, then why am I reading this?”

Overall, though, a very good and interesting read. I learned quite a few things, which was what I was looking for. I didn't even mind the WNBA stuff (as an analyst, I know, you take data however you can get it) or all the Hakeem Olajuwon references.

Effective Free Throw Percentage

2006-01-19T15:11:00.000-05:00

BV recently posted an interesting discussion about the effect of percentages on fantasy performance over at Fantasy Basketblog. That was a follow up to an earlier discussion on the same topic by DM. Both are good reads and I would recommend that you take a look at those discussions before reading any further.

The last paragraph of BV's discussion really caught my attention.

See? It took me almost 1,000 words to better gauge the fantasy values of just a few guys. And even then, it’s not an exact science. I can’t tell you if Eddy Curry or Tim Duncan is worse – or if Jason Williams or Paul Pierce are more valuable from the stripe. The player raters are a good guide but they are by no means the final word. If you’ve got your own way of valuing FT%, we’d love to hear it. Hope this helps.

Well, it just so happens that I've been experimenting with ways to accurately measure the fantasy value of percentages. While BM is right, this is no exact science (unlike something as rock solid as intelligent design) I've come across a pretty decent way of measuring percentages. For the sake of this post, I’ll call it Effective Free Throw Percentage, not to be confused with the already mysterious Shooting Efficiency.

The answer is to weight a player’s free throw (or field goal) percentages against the league average. Now league average is a pretty nebulous concept, but after ranking fantasy players through this point of year, I took the top 150 to use as my “league”. Number 149 is Deron Williams and 150 is Kevin Martin, so I think the lower bar is set about right for most leagues out there. The formula for EFT% is:

EFT% = FT%lg + (FT%p – FT%lg) * (FTAp/FTAlg)

Where,
FT%lg is equal to the league average Free Throw Percentage (76.3%)
FT%p is the Free Throw Percentage of the player
FTAlg is the league average number Free Throw Attempts (4.2 attempts per game)
FTAp is the number Free Throw Attempts of the player

So, Effective Free Throw Percentage weights the difference between the player’s percentage and the league average and adjusts the result by the difference in the player’s free throws attempts compared to the league. It basically places player’s free throw percentage on a level playing field with all other players. This stat can be calculated either on season or per game stats. I have calculated it per game.

On to the fun stuff. The top 10 EFT% leaders so far this year.

Name	FTA	FTP	EFT%	DIFF
Chauncey Billups	6.4	92.7	101.4	8.7
Corey Maggette	8.9	87.1	99.3	12.2
Dirk Nowitzki	7.2	88.9	98.0	9.1
Steve Nash	4.1	93.6	93.2	-0.4
Michael Redd	7.7	84.9	92.1	7.2
Kobe Bryant	10.5	82.5	91.9	9.4
Ray Allen	4.6	90.1	91.5	1.4
Vince Carter	7.7	83.6	89.7	6.1
Caron Butler	5.5	86.5	89.7	3.2
Peja Stojakovic	3.4	92.6	89.5	-3.1

First off, it IS possible to have an EFT% over 100. Basically, if Chauncey Billups shot the league average number of free throws per game, he would have to make 101.4% of them to have the same effect on your team. That is quality you can take to the bank. In fact, Billups, Corey Maggette, and Dirk Nowitzki are leading the pack by a huge amount – almost 5 percentage points. DIFF is the difference between a player's actual free throw percentage and his EFT%. Only two players in the top 10 have an EFT% below their actual; Steve Nash and Peja Stojakovic. So, to be part of the best, it helps shoot a lot of free throws and shoot them well.

And now the even funner stuff. The players with the lowest EFT% so far this year.

Name	FTA	FTP	EFT%	DIFF
Shaquille O'Neal	7.2	44.1	20.9	-23.2
Darius Miles	6.9	55.3	41.7	-13.6
Ben Wallace	4.3	47.7	46.9	-0.8
Ron Artest	7.6	61.2	48.9	-12.3
Dwight Howard	6.5	59.4	50.1	-9.3
Jamaal Magloire	4.4	54.3	53.2	-1.1
Chris Andersen	3.1	47.7	55.1	7.4
Eddy Curry	6.8	63.5	55.5	-8.0
Alonzo Mourning	3.4	54.3	58.4	4.1
Ruben Patterson	5.2	62.2	58.8	-3.4

As brought up by BV, the bottom is filled up with (mostly) big men. Shaq – as in most aspects of his life – appears to be in a class by himself. His EFT% is twice as low as anyone else on this list. Darius Miles, Dwight Howard, and Eddy Curry are all negative affected by the high number of free throws they take. Ron Artest, who has never been mistaken for a good free throw shooter in his career, has been particularly bad in the games he’s played in. But – at least he has plenty of time now to work on his shot, or maybe a new rap album.

And to answer the original questions posed by BV which got me thinking about this question; Eddy Curry (EFT% of 55.5%) is worse for your team than Tim Duncan (60.9), Paul Pierce (83.2) is having a slightly better year than Jason Williams (80.7), and Chauncey Billups is still the man.

Well, that was fun while it lasted

2006-01-05T23:27:00.000-05:00

From the Associated Press, "Orlando Magic forward Grant Hill was placed on the inactive list for Wednesday's game against Toronto Raptors because of a strained groin."

And why did I think it was a good idea to draft Hill in the fourth round this year?

A Jedi League Update

2005-12-31T17:57:00.000-05:00

"Many of the truths that we cling to depend on our point of view."

More than halfway through week 9, and 99.726% through 2005, themarksmen sit at 4-3, a big 3 games behind front running GSW Blog in the Jedi League. But, looking at the points scored column pictured below, and you can see that themarksmen are coming on strong – a mere 15 points out of first. Indeed, the quality of my team depends on your point of view.

So, how have things gone recently for my team?

Week 6: Give Me The Roq 519.7 at themarksmen 509.6

Worst. Lost. Ever. Ok, that’s a little dramatic, it was another heartbreaking loss for themarksmen, as 509 points was the second most points in the league for the week. For some perspective, the third most points that week was 459. The loss also totally wasted a dominating performance by Elton Brand, who accounted for 115 out of my teams 509 points and picked up a double-double for every game during the week. On the flip side, in an equally dominating performance, Dwyane Wade scored 105 points for Give Me The Roq.

The Brain Cook Factor. Ok, I’ll admit it. I speculatively started Brian Cook in week 6 based upon his status as a “starter”, and it might have cost me the win. His line for the week, 28 pts, 3 assists, 14 rebounds, and one trip back to the waver wire. Just ugly. Have I mentioned that this is a deep league?

Week 7: Free Zarko 266.8 at themarksmen 441
Week 8: Ligers 222.7 at themarksmen 383.4

Alright, I’ll say it. I don’t really know what is going on with CBS “home” vs. “away” shtick. I’m not sure what kind of home court advantage I was getting in weeks 6-8. But, if they’re going to do it, at least get some marksmen girls to make an appearance at halftime.

I grouped weeks 7 and 8 together, because they were both similar weeks that featured strong performances from Lebron James, Elton Brand, Tony Parker. Things started to turn around for themarksmen in week 7 (with a 2-3 record at the time), with a convincing win over Free Zarko. Week 8 was a nice win all wrapped up in a bow during a shortened Christmas week that also included a Primoz Brezec sighting (and it only took 8 weeks!).

And a happy New Year to all!

A Festivus for the rest of us

2005-12-06T12:04:00.000-05:00

As the fantasy basketball season marches along into the season of Festivus, let’s begin an update on the Jedi league with the Airing of Grievances.

Through week 5, themarksmen sit in lowly 7th place at 2-2. However, a quick scan down column nine and it can be seen that themarksmen so far have scored the 2nd most points in the league. Due to the cruel and spiteful fortunes of head-to-head, my two loses have been by a combined 7 points, while the wins have been by about 50. I should never play H2H for cash…

The team that is really cruising along is the aptly named Door Mats. Led by the three-headed monster of Paul Pierce, Marcus Camby, and Mamba, the Door Mats can strike with 99% accuracy at maximum speed, in rapid succession.

Now that is scary.

How Close is Close

2005-11-19T20:14:00.000-05:00

A quick review of the CBS Jedi League. In week 1, I lost to Hnk Jr's Pabst Blue Ribbons by a score of 282 to 280.2. That was fustratingly close. In week 2, the themarksmen scored 455.6 points, tops in the league that week. Which was great, except my team was on a bye! (I did kick the bye's ass, by the way). So now we are part way through week three, and here are how things look:

After losing in week 1 by less than 2 points, can the marksmen get some love? Yeah, the fact that I'm playing Van Horn, Juwan Howard, Jameer Nelson, and Speedy Claxton is my fault, but at least I have an excuse... well, kind of. But, those first 3 picks were great.

The Top 50

2005-11-09T14:23:00.000-05:00

The top fifty fantasy players through 11/8 with ratings in parenthesis.

1 Tim Duncan (6.9)
2 Kevin Garnett (6.0)
3 Dirk Nowitzki (6.0)
4 Richard Jefferson (4.9)
5 LeBron James (4.9)
6 Ray Allen (4.9)
7 Steve Nash (4.9)
8 Kobe Bryant (4.8)
9 Marcus Camby (4.0)
10 Shawn Marion (4.0)
11 Vince Carter (3.9)
12 Dwyane Wade (3.8)
13 Lamar Odom (3.5)
14 Chris Webber (3.5)
15 Gilbert Arenas (3.2)
16 Michael Redd (3.1)
17 Jermaine O'Neal (2.8)
18 Smush Parker (2.8)
19 Pau Gasol (2.6)
20 Mehmet Okur (2.6)
21 Paul Pierce (2.5)
22 Jason Kidd (2.2)
23 Allen Iverson (2.2)
24 Antawn Jamison (1.9)
25 Chris Duhon (1.6)
26 Al Harrington (1.5)
27 Eddie Jones (1.5)
28 T.J. Ford (1.4)
29 Baron Davis (1.4)
30 Delonte West (1.3)
31 Gerald Wallace (1.3)
32 Jamaal Tinsley (1.3)
33 Chris Paul (1.3)
34 Antoine Walker (1.1)
35 Yao Ming (1.1)
36 Ricky Davis (0.8)
37 Ben Wallace (0.7)
38 Richard Hamilton (0.7)
39 Rashard Lewis (0.7)
40 Elton Brand (0.5)
41 Cuttino Mobley (0.5)
42 Chris Bosh (0.4)
43 Andrei Kirilenko (0.2)
44 Bonzi Wells (0.2)
45 Andre Iguodala (0.1)
46 Tayshaun Prince (0.0)
47 Drew Gooden (0.0)
48 Steve Francis (-0.1)
49 Jason Richardson (-0.2)
50 Carmelo Anthony (-0.2)

Correction (Don't Drink and Post)

2005-11-08T08:28:00.000-05:00

Eddie Jones doesn't play for the Heat? What does coach Pat Riley have to say about this? How about Brian Grant?

On the plus side, Eddie should be fine when Shaq returns. Until then, there is always the EDDIE JONES FAN PAGE (capitalization not mine).

Last after midnight posting for me, I promise. The beer probably didn't help either.

Spotlight On: Eddie Jones

2005-11-08T00:04:00.000-05:00

Did you know that Eddie Jones is ranked #26 on the marksman's player rater? And if you think I'm just the crazy one, he is ranked #20 on the ESPN player rater, #16 on FantasyAnalyzer, and #22 on Basketball Monsters' rater. Clearly, this development needs further investigation.

Looking at Jones' first three games, he is averaging 32 minutes a game, which is decent, but below the 36 he averaged last year. Upon further investigation, Jones' uptick can be contributed to two factors. First, over the first three games, he has taken over 7 threes a game. Second, he has hit 50% of those threes. So, the question is, can Jones continue to take 7 threes a game while hitting 50% of those shots? And - we all know the answer - of course he can't. No one can. Now is the time to, sell, sell, sell if you can get a premium. If you can't get a premium, I would probably work to get a trade at face value, because at best, I see Jones ending up the year at the same level as last year. At worst, when Shaq returns, Eddie (whose value is tied to scoring) will be (at best) the fourth option on the Heat.

The Jon Barry Effect

2005-11-05T22:19:00.000-05:00

Not including tonight’s games, here are the new top 10 rated players (with my standardized roto rankings in parentheses). This list is starting to look a lot more like one would expect than the list after the first game of the year.

1 Chris Duhon (6.8)
2 Steve Nash (6.5)
3 Dwyane Wade (5.8)
4 Ray Allen (5.6)
5 Marcus Camby (5.3)
6 Jon Barry (5.3)
7 Richard Jefferson (4.6)
8 Kevin Garnett (4.5)
9 Kobe Bryant (4.1)
10 Dirk Nowitzki (3.9)

Duhon is still living off his first triple double. Nash, Wade, and Allen have put together two good games. Camby has had a few impressive games - hopefully he can stay healthy over the majority of the season... McGrady is out three weeks and Jon Barry has been taking advantage of extra playing time (that would make it time to pick him up). Richard Jefferson is off to a great start. And Garnett, Bryant, and Dirk... they'll be in the top 10 for the rest of the season. Deal with that!

The Fantasy Basketball League

2005-11-05T20:46:00.000-05:00

In case anyone out there was curious about the CBS league. Notice that my team (themarksmen) is obscured in mediocrity.

There are better times for the marksmen ahead. Mark my words.

Eighty-one To Go

2005-11-03T23:10:00.000-05:00

What can one game tell us about the rest of the season? I’m not going to lie to you… I don’t know (you come here this type of insightful analysis, right?) But not knowing what I’m talking about has never stopped me in the past. So, who are the best roto fantasy players through the (mostly) first game of the new season?

Because it works for David Letterman and NASA, the countdown begins at 10 (with standardized ratings in parentheses).

10. Shawn Marion (3.7)
9. Gerald Wallace (3.9)
8. Ricky Davis (4.2)
7. Steve Nash (4.5)
6. Chris Duhon (5.6)
5. Delonte West (5.7)
4. Antoine Walker (5.9)

Marion in the top 10 should be no surprise, and Nash is a top 20 player, but how about the rest of the gang? Not one, but two Celtics in the top 10? And one of them is not Paul Pierce? Delonte West almost goes for the triple double while Chris Duhon gets the real thing. And Antoine Walker’s supposed fall from fantasy relevance is cut short (this day at least – I won’t take that to the bank). What’s the best reason to not get too excited about anyone on this list? The highest ranking player with more than 1 game played is Allen Iverson at number 19.

Although Marion’s the only one who’ll be in this list after the week, all seem like good buys. (Well, maybe not Walker) Being a New Englander myself, I can say that both Davis and West looked good in the first game - although Davis’ stats were especially helped by overtime.

The top 3 starts to this season:

3. LeBron James (6.1)

Surprised? No? The. King. Has. Arrived. James went off for a line of 31-3-4 with 6 threes and 2 steals. Also impressive – considering the threes - is his 56% FG percentage. And all of that in only 33 minutes.

Can he keep it up? Hell ya.

2. Sam Cassell (8.5)

Cassell enjoyed his first game for the Clippers. 35-5-11 with 2 steals and a block. It helped that Corey Maggette did not play, but expect a bounce back year from Cassell.

Can he keep it up? Not quite, but I’d expect a top 25 performance this year.

1. Darius Miles (8.7)

That was quite the first game. Can he keep it up? Hehehehehehehehehehehehehe…

CourtsideTimes

2005-11-02T22:14:00.000-05:00

From Knickerblogger:

For years I’ve been jealous. It was great to go to sites like BaseballPrimer.com (now BaseballThinkFactory.org) and BaseballProspectus.com to get in depth coverage of baseball. It seemed that you could learn something new everyday & interact with people that wanted more from sports than the same old cliches recycled for a new generation. More recently sites like the HardballTimes.com and FootballOutsiders.com continued that tradition of investigative reasoning in their respective sports. I was jealous because baseball and football had such great websites, and there was no comprehensive site for basketball. I was jealous, until today.

I couldn't say it better myself, in fact, I won't. CourtsideTimes looks to have a great start and I can see a bright future ahead. Worthy of a bookmark.

You play with the team you have, not the team you want

2005-11-01T09:15:00.000-05:00

The CBS Sportsline marathon draft is complete and the season is about to begin. The length of the draft (6 hours between picks) combined with the fact that I had to leave town midway through the draft means that I can divide my draft into two distinct, and very different, phases.

Phase 1: In the Catbird Seat (or so I thought)
# Pick
2 LeBron James (F CLE)
25 Elton Brand (F LAC)
28 Brad Miller (C SAC)
51 Grant Hill (F ORL)
54 Tony Parker (G SA)
77 Sam Cassell (G LAC)

Ok, the Grant Hill pick does not look so good at the moment, but at the time I was pretty damn happy with it. You also might be questioning Brad Miller at 28, but 1) this is a point-based league that heavily favors scoring (all the more support for Hill at 51), 2) based upon the league scoring system, Miller was the 19^th best player overall and second best center last year behind Shaq (I told you the league favors scorers), and 3) the league requires 2 starting centers.

Also, Brand started looking good (not in that way sicko) at the beginning of the second round. Watching him slip and slide down 11 picks to #25 is one of those reasons that makes fantasy drafts so great.

Phase 2: Crap, I won’t have Internet access for 2 weeks and we’re only in the 7^th round picks
80 Jamal Crawford (G NY)
103 Josh Childress (F ATL)
106 Jim Jackson (F PHO)
129 David Wesley (G HOU)
132 Juwan Howard (F HOU)
155 Jameer Nelson (G ORL)
158 Keith Van Horn (F DAL)
181 Speedy Claxton (G NO)
184 Troy Hudson (G MIN)
207 Alvin Williams (G TOR)

This is what happens when you let a computer pick for you. Before I left my remaining draft picks to my autodraft friend, I did rank all of the remaining players. But without the human ability to make adjustments, you get something like the list above. Not that it’s horrible (remember, this is a scoring heavy league), just a few glaring problems. First, with the slight exceptions of Josh Childress and maybe Jameer Nelson, not a lot of UPSIDE on the list. In fact, I see quite a bit of downside. David Wesley, Von Horn, Speedly Claxton… not a group known for their health. At least it’ll be fun to see how many of my players are hurt by the end of November.

But what pissed me off the most is that this is a league that requires - not 1 – but 2 starting centers! I don’t see a center on that list. Thanks computer! Since the league apparently is not letting us pick up any players until the season starts (Thanks CBS Sportsline!) and if my team doesn’t have 2 starting centers I’m automatically disqualified from the first week of play meant that I had to quickly trade for a center. Fortunately, I ended up trading Josh Childress for Primoz Brezec (not ideal, but not horrible considering the situation).

For better or worse, this is the team I’m going to battle with. Just don’t get comfortable guys. Some of you might not make it out of here.

Forty Hours of Sheer Bliss

2005-10-12T21:00:00.000-04:00

Well, it only took a day and a half, but we made it through the first round of the CBS Sportsline league. Here is what the first round looks like:

1	Pabst Blue Ribbons	Kevin Garnett (F MIN)
2	themarksmen	LeBron James (F CLE)
3	SPURS DYNASTY	Dirk Nowitzki (F DAL)
4	Free Zarko	Tracy McGrady (G HOU)
5	Door Mats	Kobe Bryant (G LAL)
6	Playtime Poppy	Amare Stoudemire (C PHO)
7	Cantankerous Succubi	Shawn Marion (F PHO)
8	Drop the Dime	Vince Carter (G NJ)
9	GSW Blog	Tim Duncan (F SA)
10	HMS Surprise	Steve Nash (G PHO)
11	Give Me The Roq	Dwyane Wade (G MIA)
12	Gabe Mejia	Allen Iverson (G PHI)
13	NBA Source	Baron Davis (G GS)

Exhibit A in how to end a fantasy season before it starts; Amare Stoudemire at #6. Just a pile of bad luck to go with that pick. Play the game long enough, and it'll happen to all of us, though. No real surprises in this round - at least based upon the league scoring system - although the Baron Davis pick is pretty risky. I'd be waking up in cold sweats everyday with Baron as the stud of my team.

Return of the Jedi

2005-10-10T21:39:00.000-04:00

As both Nels and Hnk Jr have already mentioned (and maybe others - my apologies), the Return of the Jedi Fantasy League had begun. With great serendipity, (and maybe a little bribery), I received the second pick in the draft (amazingly, I also got the second pick in the other league I'm playing in - see below). This time I did not have to choose between Garnett and Lebron, as Hnk Jr of Pabst Blue Ribbons (No matter what he says - it's a worthy name) selected Kevin Garnett. My pick, King James (of course). Like some of the other blogs, I plan on keeping the happens updated in this space. So far:

1st Round:
Pabst Blue Ribbons: Kevin Garnett
themarksmen: Lebron James

More to come.

"You underestimate the power of the Dark Side. If you will not fight, then you will meet your destiny."

Holy Crap

2005-10-06T21:41:00.000-04:00

I'm currently playing in a roto league with 10 other teams. Having the second pick, I figured I'd happy take what was leftover from the Lebron/Garnett 1st pick. Instead, the team with the first pick takes Dirk Nowitzki! Holy crap - now I'm on the clock and have to decide between the two best guys in the league. After about 1/2 hour of deliberation, I took... Kevin Garnett.

I had Garnett last year and I won the league, so, can you blame me?

Waver Wire Work

2005-09-30T15:28:00.000-04:00

Waver wire work, pointless alliteration, or important part of fantasy sports? Probably both.

Recently, I wondered - in a typical fantasy league, what is the most difficult category to pick up off the waver wire? No matter how well I prepare my team each year, I always find myself short in at least one category (it's usually blocks, because I'm the easymarksman, and me likely the shooters). Since I use wavers significantly in all my leagues, I thought it would be important to look at what was out there for me on wavers.

First, I need to lay out my assumptions. To make things easy, I'm assuming a 10 team league starting 10 players each, with a 5 player bench. That makes a nice and even 150 players taken care of. I'm also looking at data for the 2004/2005 season. If you have a problem with my assumptions, well, you're probably over thinking the situation.

So, in a perfectly efficient league (and we all know how well that works coughstockmarketcough) players out of the top 150 are available on wavers. Looking at the 3 top ranked players in each category out of everyone ranked 151+ overall, we find:

Top 3 players in each category (per game stats)
3pt: 1.4
Reb: 9.1
Ast: 5.0
Stl: 1.3
Blk: 2.2
Pts: 12.4

Surprisingly, those stats compare quite well to the average stats from the 100 top players (i.e., starters):

Average of 100 top ranked players
3pt: 1.0
Reb: 6.2
Ast: 3.7
Stl: 1.2
Blk: 0.7
Pts: 17.1

Looking at the two groups of stats, the only category where you cannot pick up someone better than the average starter is... points. The best players on wavers are 28% worse as the average starting player. That's not particularly shocking, because scoring is seemingly the category with the highest correlation with overall fantasy value. But it does drive home an important point; don't expect to work the waver wire to pick up scorers.

The easiest category to pickup? In theory, it's blocks. The average starter has 0.7 blocks, while the top three guys on wavers average 2.2 blocks - an increase of over 200%. I say in theory, because the 3 waver players in blocks, Theo Ratliff, Adonal Foyle, and Alonzo Mourning, were a pretty big step above everyone else. Plus, you'd also have to carry around the shame of having Theo Ratliff or Adonal Foyle on your fantasy team.

Of course, you can try to ride the hot hand... just watch out for Charlie Ward.

The Ultimate Fantasy Basketball League

2005-09-28T20:04:00.000-04:00

Nels, over at Give Me the Rock, had a grand and sporting idea. A fantasy basketball league between those in the know. (And believe it or not, that includes me).

It’s time to put my money (literally) where my mouth has been and test the skills against guys who live and breathe basketball. It should be a fun ride. I'm sure keep the blog updated with my travels.

By the way, if you are interested in joining, there is still time.

Player Ratings NOT to use

2005-09-15T21:01:00.000-04:00

Every fantasy basketball player should not be without some kind of player ratings. There are quite a few I'd recommend, especially Basketball Monster - which is pretty awesome. Also, ESPN's (is it even free anymore?) and, if you are in the mood to really go slumming, there is mine. But one I'm not happy with, unfortunately, is About.com's fantasy rankings.

Why? The answer is simple. As stated by About.com:

In short, the "Above Average Indicator" is similar to ESPN's player rater in determining how much better a player is than the rest of the League across nine statistical categories. Where we differ (and hopefully surpass ESPN's rater) is that our weighting is unique to each category based on median and standard deviation figures derived from just the Top 200 players (in other words, who's likely to be owned in fantasy basketball leagues), more attention is paid to FG and FT shooting and we include Turnovers as a negative factor since most leagues count TOs.

Nothing quite quantifies how destructive horrendous production in just one category can sabotage a player's entire value quite like Shaq's free-throw shooting. As if it weren't bad enough that O'Neal misfires at a 46.6% rate from the line (29.9% below average), he compounds his woes (and yours) with his 343 attempts from the line -- second-most in the NBA. Add in O'Neal's poor Turnover numbers and suddenly he sinks towards the level of Mohammed, a good center having a very good year, but considered to be not nearly in the class of Shaq. Where Mohammed gains points is his respectable showing in nearly every category, save 3-pointers and assists. The bottom line: for all the categories that O'Neal may be winning you, he's also costing you in two of them as opposed to Mohammed, who produces across the board and doesn't hinder you.

It all sounds great, right? Well, expect for the fact that, much like W. Bush; they hate black people… NO, I kid, I kid. I meant to say that they happen to be twisting the truth, also known as lying to us.

A blow-by-blow account

1. Nothing quite quantifies how destructive horrendous production in just one category can sabotage a player's entire value quite like Shaq's free-throw shooting.

Great in theory. So why is Shaq ranked #13 on About.com's player rater for 2005?

2. Add in O'Neal's poor Turnover numbers and suddenly he sinks towards the level of [Nazr] Mohammed.

O'Neal was ranked #13 on About.com's player rater for 2005, while Mohammed was ranked #101. Same level, huh?

3. [Shaq] compounds his woes (and yours) with his 343 attempts from the line -- second-most in the NBA.

True. Except that About.com does not weight their ratings by the number of free throws shot – and weighting is very important. For the 2005 season, Shaq's free throw percentage was 46.1%, which is horrifyingly bad. But, Ben Wallace had a FT percentage of 42.8%, which is even worse. The difference is that Ben Wallace shot 4.1 free throws per game while Shaq shot 10.5. Which means that Shaq drags down the FT% of your team by 2.5 times that of Ben Wallace. If About.com’s player rater does not take that into account, then you might end up thinking Shaq is the 13^th best player in the league, and you don’t need that.

6 Degrees of Vince Carter

2005-08-31T20:39:00.000-04:00

With an eye on the upcoming fantasy basketball season, let’s take a quick look at a few players who had a good end to last season – in this case, those players who increased their fantasy value the most over the last month of last season – with some clairvoyant commentary provided free of charge.

1. Vince Carter: The story of Vinsanity has been well documented by the basketball annals. I will only add that Carter finished the year ranked #17 on the rater after being out of the top 100 players during most of his time north of the border. Does that make him a late second/third round pick this year or just a slacker? I’d be scared with the prospect of selecting that high in a draft, although I wouldn’t be surprised if he lives up to it.

2. Corey Maggette: Maggette finished the year on a small roll before injuring his wrist. Overall, he finished 31^st in the player rankings, about where one would expect. With the additions of Cuttino Mobley and Sam Cassell to the Clippers, I’d be a little worried about Maggette’s ability to get the touches to produce at the same level this year.

3. Brevin Knight: Finished second in the league in assists behind super-pointguard and MVP Steve Nash, as well as the #45 rated player. Yes, that includes the entire league. The Bobcats drafted Raymond Felton with the fifth pick in the draft, and although Knight may begin the season as the starting PG, it’d be tough to expect anywhere near a repeat performance from Knight this year, especially while spending some quality time on the bench towards the end of the season.

4. Chris Bosh: I can tell you from personal experience that Bosh started last year a little like Vince Carter. Uninspired would be a nice way to put it. And like Vince Carter, he picked up the pace quite a bit in the second half. And also like Carter, I expect Bosh’s play for the upcoming season to be more like the way he ended rather than the way he started.

5. Rasheed Wallace: Wallace finished the year as the 61^st rated player, but jumped up from 91 over the last month of the season. I never much liked Wallace as a fantasy player – maybe due to my irrational fear of headbands – or the fact that he’s always seemed overrated as a fantasy player. However, in his defense, I present 100 reasons why I love Rasheed Wallace. Well, not me personally, of course.

6. Donyell Marshall: I hope no one out there drafted Marshall high in their draft last year based in his 2003 performance – that would have been painful. 2004 was consistently inconsistent for Marshall. Although he finished the year on a good run (again, partially due to a little trade that happened in Toronto), it’s tough to predict Marshall’s 2005. He’s now playing for the Cavs and may be potentially sharing time with Drew Gooden, a situation good for no one, although Gooden’s short time with the Cavs might be coming to an end.

Throw me a friggen bone

2005-08-25T22:25:00.000-04:00

I have an idea for some interesting research that would require individual player game logs. So, I will throw this out there, if anyone reading this has access to, or knows where I can find, a database of player game by game stats, I would forever be in your debt. I will find a way to repay you that does not involve sweet man-love, I swear. Yes, I can go to a site like ESPN or Yahoo and download the stats player by player, but I do have a job, and a fiancée, and a dog for god sakes, so please help me not work myself to the bone here. Your help will be much appreciated.

Back a Again

2005-08-21T13:05:00.000-04:00

It's been a long, beautiful, and wonderful hiatus. Soaking up such wonderful television shows as Growing Up Gotti, Celebrity Fit Club 2 (Yes 2 – what happened to Fit Club 1, I ask), Rock Star: INXS, Hogan Knows Best, and of course, the pinnacle of pop culture, the 70's House. God dammit, it’s been tough to focus on basketball with all those sweet reality shows.

But, I’m back. So, hide the kids, because it will be a frightening ride…

2005

2005-04-22T22:49:00.000-04:00

Another interesting year gone by in fantasy basketball. While there is still plenty of playoff basketball to watch and the occasional playoff tournament to enter, most fantasy champions have been crowned (including myself - with all props going to Joel Przybilla and his insane number of blocks during April). While I'd had hoped to write a little more in this blog over the course of the year, I had a tough time following through. Instead, I spent the last few months (as well as the next few I'm sure) buying a house and being forced into marriage...

I'm kidding about that last one. Really. I haven't been forced into anything. Getting married is wonderful. Trust me. I recommend it to everyone.

As we end this year, good luck to Reggie Miller. What a run.

The Blazers are Still Playing, Right?

2005-04-03T14:28:00.000-04:00

Coming down the stretch, does your fantasy team need some blocks? If so, there’s a guy on the Blazers who is averaging over 4 blocks a game over the past two weeks. No, not good old Theo Ratliff, who has apparently step into some kind of temporal rift and disappeared off the face of the Earth, but super white-guy Joel Przybilla. Przybilla, who has averaged a very decent 1.9 blocks per game over the course of the season, has gone nuts with Ratliff and Randolph out of the Blazers lineup and has recently put up games of 8, 4, 7, and 4 blocks over the past couple of weeks. With both Ratliff (probably) and Randolph (definitely) out for the rest of the season, there is no reason why Przybilla can’t’ keep putting up solid numbers until the Blazers go quietly into the good night.

As an aside, I love the photos of Przybilla on Yahoo. I especially like the ones of Antonio Daniels and Ray Allen where Przybilla is actually missing from the photo. Is he a Yeti? Can they not capture him on film? Even the pictures he’s in, you can’t really see his face. It’s great.

Randolph Out For the Season

2005-03-15T22:42:00.000-05:00

From NBA.com - Randolph To Have Surgery

He wasn't out for the year already? Must have just seemed that way.

What's Wrong With Webber?

2005-03-15T21:55:00.000-05:00

Philadelphia picks up Webber at the trading deadline for practically nothing in order to make a run at the playoffs, and Webber immediately craps the bed. Where did Webber go? His latest line, 5 points, 7 rebounds, and 5 assists in a win (yes, win) over the Lakers is par the course. Can he really not handle being the offensive focal point of a team? Can Iverson just not play with other good players? Why is Webber being benched by coach Jim O'Brien? And how much do the Lakers suck this year? Questions abound.

Webber's rebounds, steals, and blocks averaged over 48 minutes are in the neighborhood of what he did with the Kings. That's good... if he plays more than 30 minutes a game. The extra rest should help his knee, and if he can not miss any games moving forward (other than the ones he's benched in) that'll be a positive. The overall diagnosis for Webber, however, looks to be bustitis.

Carousel of Progress

2005-03-11T09:42:00.000-05:00

It’s been a while since I looked at movement in the player rankings. A month, actually. Since that’s such a nice round number, I decided to compile a list of players who have made the largest climb up the rater since 2/11/05. The rational being that it’s difficult to impossible to identify players that are picking up there game now by looking at the entire year of statistics. The following table lists the top 20 players with the biggest jump in rankings over the past month:

	Name	Team	GP	TOT	31105 Rank	21105 Rank	Movement
1	Toni Kukoc	MIL	31	-6.4	195	253	58
2	Brian Cardinal	MEM	37	-3.3	116	165	49
3	Joel Przybilla	POR	54	-6.2	189	237	48
4	Tyronn Lue	HOU	49	-5.9	178	221	43
5	Tim Thomas	NYK	51	-5.3	160	197	37
6	Josh Childress	ATL	59	-4.6	145	180	35
7	Raul Lopez	UTA	31	-6.4	194	228	34
8	Maurice Williams	MIL	59	-3.2	111	137	26
9	Mike Sweetney	NYK	55	-6.1	186	209	23
10	Juwan Howard	HOU	58	-5.7	173	195	22
11	Chris Bosh	TOR	61	-1.2	62	83	21
12	Josh Howard	DAL	54	-1.7	66	86	20
13	Marquis Daniels	DAL	38	-3.8	123	142	19
14	Donyell Marshall	TOR	52	-2.1	77	95	18
15	Brendan Haywood	WAS	56	-3.5	120	138	18
16	Nenad Krstic	NJN	55	-6.0	184	202	18
17	Damon Jones	MIA	63	-2.3	91	108	17
18	Joe Smith	MIL	55	-3.9	127	144	17
19	Marcus Camby	DEN	50	0.3	38	54	16
20	Gerald Wallace	CHA	53	-2.8	98	114	16

What is the common theme here? I won’t leave you in suspense; to me, the theme is opportunity, minutes, whatever you want to call it. Paul Gasol’s injury opened the door for Brian Cardinal, Isiah Thomas traded away junk to clear playing time for more junk (Tim Thomas) and the kids (Mike Sweetney), Antoine Walker’s trade to Boston gave a bigger responsibility and more minutes to Josh Childress, Stackhouse has been out in Dallas, and, of course, the Blazers happened to Przybilla.

Now some of these guys, say Toni Kukoc, are still pretty useless in just about every fantasy league. Raul Lopez is on the injured list. I have Przybilla on my fantasy team – but I shouldn’t. But if you can get some of these guys off wavers in your league, especially the ones whose opportunity will last the rest of the year, like Cardinal and Childress, you should be setting yourself up for a strong finish.

Spotlight on Larry Hughes

2005-03-04T23:48:00.001-05:00

Larry Hughes, back from injury and playing like a fox. In his first game back from a broken thumb, he had 2 steals, 6 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 block, and 31 points. Yes, 31 points. I believe that is what you call game shape. I will say this as clearly as possible - If you are in need of steals in your league, get Hughes. If you are in a keeper league, get Hughes. If you have a league of retarded owners, get Hughes.

Steve Francis, Chauncey Billups, and Mike Bibby have all played extremely well this year, but they are not in the same neighborhood as Hughes. Before his injury, Larry Hughes was in the middle of a breakout year, where he was ranked #9 on the player rater. From here on out, he will probably lead the league in steals, score a ton of points, hit some threes, and grab an unhealthy amount of rebounds for a guard. I wish I had him in my league… Instead, I’m stuck with Chris “Don’t Trade Me” Webber. But don’t let that stop you from getting Larry Hughes, who is – and will continue to be - a top ten player for the rest of the year.

A Meta Trade Analysis

2005-02-28T09:00:00.000-05:00

That's right, why take the time to write something original when you can sample? The table below is a summary of what some of the more outspoken fantasy sites have to say about the deadline trades. A few caveats about the process. The Up/Same/Down method employed is a rough cut that loses all the finer information. For example, people were generally much more positive about the increase in Peja Stojakovic's fantasy value than they were about Baron Davis', even though both received many "Ups". Likewise, it may not be evident from the table that Chris Webber receiving "Sames" is a good thing, while Keith Van Horn receiving "Sames" is a bad thing. In some cases, information about a player's value was contained in a sentence or less. As a result, I may have inferred something about a player that the author did not intend. I apologize to any author if I have taken what they have written out of context. Players without fantasy value are not included in the following table.

Sites:
FNBAB: Fantasy NBA Blog
GMTR: Give Me the Rock
FBB: Fantasy Basketball Blog
FB: Fantasy Basketblog
Yahoo: Yahoo Fantasy Sports
RT: Rototimes
FanBay: FanBay.net
ESPN: ESPN

PLAYER	FNBAB	GMTR	FBB	FB	Yahoo	RT	FanBay	ESPN
Al Harrington	Up		Up	Up		Up		Up
Allen Iverson		Down	Up	Same		Same		Same
Antoine Walker	Same	Same		Down	Same	Same	Down	Same
Baron Davis	Up		Up	Up	Up	Same	Up	Same
Bob Sura	Down
Brad Miller			Same		Up	Up	Up
Chris Webber	Same	Same	Down	Same	Same	Same		Down
Dan Dickau	Down		Down	Down	Up	Up		Down
Darius Songaila				Up		Same
Derek Fisher	Down
Desmon Mason			Up	Up				Up
Glenn Robinson	Up					Up		None
J.R. Smith	Up		Up		Up	Up
Jason Richardson	Down			Down		Same
Jiri Welsch	Up	Up	Up					None
Josh Childress		Up	Up	Up		Up		Up
Josh Smith		Up	Up	Up		Up		Up
Keith Van Horn	None	Down	None		Same	None		None
Kenny Thomas				Same	Up	Same		Up
Mark Blount	Down	None		Down
Marcus Banks		Up		None	Up
Mike Dunleavy	Down			Down		Down
Mike James	Up		Same			Same	Same
Mike Sweetney	Up	Up	Same	Up		Up
Mo Williams	Up	Up	Up				Up
Nazr Mohammed	Up		Down	Down		Down		Down
Peja Stojakovic	Up		Up	Up	Up	Up		Up
Raef LaFrentz	Down			Same
Rasho Nesterovic							Down	Same
Ricky Davis				Up		Down
Sam Dalembert	Up					Up		Up
Speedy Claxton	Down			Down	Down
Troy Murphy				Down				Same

You traded a what for a who now?

2005-02-25T08:42:00.000-05:00

I've got some fantasy trade analysis up my sleeve, but that takes some time dammit, so for now:...

Can anyone run an NBA team? Do I need any credentials? I'd like to give it a try, I'm sure the pay is good and groupies would be involved. The salary cap has turned the NBA into some kind of bizzaro world where nothing makes sense. Reports are now that Gary Payton won't report to the Hawks, and Atlanta is probably fine with that. And the Hornets trade Baron Davis for cap space. What is Isiah Thomas's plan? Has he even told himself yet? The only explanation that would make sense is that he's deliberately trying to sabotage the Knicks. It's the first $200 million team made entirely out of long-term overpaid bench players that nobody else wants! Yeah! How depressing must it be to be a Knicks fan right now, watching your team get worse with each Isiah Thomas trade, knowing that the Knicks have been hancuffed for at least the next 5 years with bad contacts and marginal players. And it's probably going to get even worse.

Good quote from someone in my league:

"I'd love to see the Celts postgame meeting after the Nuggets blowout, and Rivers lighting into his team with a Pitino-esque tirade: "Larry Bird is not walking back through that door. Kevin McHale is not walking through that door. Antoine Walker is not wal....what? He what? Well, guys, apparently I'm wrong!""

Day Traders

2005-02-22T13:35:00.000-05:00

Trades. The lifeblood of fantasy sports. Drafts and auctions are an intense, action-filled events where teams are formed and the course of another year is laid out. And making adjustments to a team through wavers is vital to a teams success. But trades, trades keep my attention. Anything is possible, any player available for the right price. And timing is key. A player’s stock rises and falls when they have a good or bad game, suffer an injury, get benched for verbally assaulting the coach, fight in the stands, or accidentally get caught with their friend’s pot.

You may have someone in your league who loves to trade. Lets call him Mr. 101 offers. The man may or may not be employed full time, it’s difficult to tell, but he definitely gets off on trading. He’ll shoot you 5 different trades at the same time, and once you reject all of those (on grounds they are ridiculous) he’ll shoot you 5 more. The combinations are endless, 2-for-2’s. 3-for-3’s, 2-for-3’s, 3-for-5’s, he’s giving it all to you. Well, except for a fair deal. The positive aspect of Mr. 101 is that he’s sending so many trades so quickly, he’ll eventually send a fair offer, or even one that works out in your favor, as long as your willing to wade through the rest of the crap.

While Mr. 101 is at least making daily life interesting, the man on the opposite end of the trading spectrum isn’t. Mr. No Show often disappears from the face of the Earth shortly after draft day. Taking a look at his team, Voshon Lenard and Ron Artest are still in his starting lineup, while Jason Kidd is sitting on the bench. He always, for some reason, has players that you want. So you send some trades over, waiting a few days, then a week, week and a half, before finally canceling them. You might get lucky and catch him right when he checks in halfway through the season, only to find the next day that your trade has been rejected and the window of opportunity gone forever.

Finally, let’s not forget Mr. 101’s cousin, the original huckster, Mr. 2-for-1. Boy, he’s got a trade for you. He’ll give you Darius Miles AND Hedo Turkoglu, and all you have to give up is Lamar Odom. Ok, you don’t like that, how about Darius Miles AND Tayshaun Prince for Tim Duncan. No good either, that’s ok, he’s got all day. Ever the cooperative snake oil salesman, he’ll tell you to “add up the stats, he’s giving up more” or that “Miles alone had a better game than Duncan last night”. Evil. Especially when you watch helplessly as his spiel works on someone else in the league.

So as we enter the stretch run of the fantasy season, good luck to all the traders out there. Well, except for you, Mr. 2-for-1.

Fantasy All Stars - Western Conference

2005-02-17T22:19:00.000-05:00

PG: Steve Nash: Steve Nash for MVP? Steve Nash for MVP? Steve Nash for MVP? Steve Nash for MVP? Please stop, brain hurts. What Steve “MVP” Nash really is… is a damn fine fantasy point guard, the best in the West. The only two numbers that you need to know about Nash are 11.5, which is the number of assists he's averaging per game and 1, which is the number of MVP awards he’s going to be gifted at the end of the year. From a fantasy perspective, his percentages are also pretty sweet, as are his long, greasy locks.

Props to: Mike Bibby has had a quiet, but solid fantasy season so far, without the greasy locks.

SG: Tracy McGrady: On one hand, McGrady hasn't quite justified his 1st round pick in many leagues (He was picked 4^th in my league). On the other, he's been the best shooting guard in the West. McGrady as a Rocket has been eerily similar to McGrady in Orlando, so it looks like McGrady does his thing no matter where he is playing. The Rockets are on a winning run and look like they are meshing, although that probably means more to Yao Ming’s value than McGrady’s.

Props to: Ray Allen is doing what you'd expect and his team leads the division. Manu Ginobili is following a breakout year with a similar performance this year.

SF: Shawn Marion: Is Marion a better fantasy play with Nash? The stats say no, but since Nash has been pre-awarded the MVP, the experts have spoken. Marion – Nash = Donyell Marshall. I’ll still show Marion some love though.

Props to: Andrei Kirilenko has been hurt for a good portion of the year, but he’s averaging 3.6 blocks a game. Rashard Lewis is an all star and he deserves it.

PF: Kevin Garnett: If I need to explain why Garnett is here, shame on you.

Props to: Chris Webber, who has been alternating triple doubles with DNPs, and, Elton Brand, who is so consistently good that it’s sleep inducing. Seriously, look at his game log sometime.

C: Dirk Nowitzki: Got to love that center eligibility. What the East lacks, the West certainly makes up for. I feel bad for any poor bastards out there playing in an Eastern Conference only league, deciding between starting Mark Blount or Tony Battie this week. Anyway, Dirk has certainly raised his game from a slightly disappointing last year. His points, rebounds, blocks, and assists are all up. And they aren’t many centers out there who provide a three a game (ok, Raef, I hear you too).

Props to: Real centers, like Amare Stoudemire, who is younger than my little brother and making feel real old, Brad Miller, who is showing that he can be a force even with Webber in the lineup, and Tim Duncan who is doing his thing while playing through ankle pain.

So there is the West. What did I learn from all this? Basically, the East sucks, the West is boring, Lebron James is great, and Steve Nash is greater.

Enjoy the 2005 NBA All Star Game!

Fantasy All Stars - Eastern Conference

2005-02-15T21:45:00.000-05:00

With the real all star game this week, now is as good a time as any to mock up a fantasy all star team through this point in the season. Positions are based upon eligibility in Yahoo! Leagues.

Eastern Conference

PG: Gilbert Arenas: His assists are not that great for a point guard - Allen Iverson is averaging over 2 assists more a game - but Gilbert Arenas is doing everything else, such as leading the Wiz in scoring and hauling in almost 2 steals and 3 threes a game. With or without Larry Hughes in the lineup, Arenas is a fantasy force who is getting better and better.

Props to: Steve Francis, who is doing a lot for Orlando this year, just not quite as much as Arenas, Jason Kidd, who IS doing enough, just not for the whole season, and Stephon Marbury, who is proving that NBA standings don't really matter in fantasy basketball.

SG: Allen Iverson: Ok, Iverson is playing PG this year, but since I really wanted to put Arenas on the team and Iverson has SG eligibility, Iverson is here. The funny thing is that Arenas plays more like a shooting guard anyway... but I digress. Iverson is having a great year (he is currently #5 on the player rater behind only the big 4 - Garnett, Lebron, Dirk, and Maron), his assists are up, his scoring is well documented, his steals remain high, the only thing he can't do is shoot. From a fantasy standpoint, who cares if he is unhappy in Philly, as long as he keeps supplying the 50+ point games.

Props to: What the East lacks in big men (see below), it makes up for in guards: Any normal year, Dwayne Wade would have been starting on this team, but he just misses the cut. Paul Pierce is having another Paul Pierce-like year, plays well, doesn't get hurt, looks like he's not trying. Larry Hughes was having a breakout year before he was injured. And Vince Carter qualifies at both SG and SF, although he doesn't make the list at either position.

SF: Lebron James: Easiest choice on the team. He's posed to take over the top spot in the player rankings from Garnett during the second half of the season. His run at the top will be long and glorious.

Props to: No forward in the East is in the same building as Lebron. However, Grant Hill's comeback is great and most fantasy teams probably had him at hello during their drafts. Richard Jefferson stepped up his game from last year before his season ending injury.

PF: Jermaine O'Neal: I'd rather not give this spot to the guy who was suspended for a bunch of games (ruining fantasy seasons for some no doubt), but the competition among PFs in the East is not the strongest. Currently ranked #19 on the rater, O'Neal is clearly the best at his position when he plays. All the way down at #41 is the second ranked PF in the East, Drew Gooden, who is playing well, but hardly setting hearts aflutter.

Props to: Gooden, who is at least making more of his opportunity in Cleveland than he did in his other stops.

C: Shaq or Zydrunas Ilgauskas: Shaq is the clear pick for non-percentage leagues. His numbers are all similar to last year, so there hasn't been the "bump" that many people expected from his move to Miami, but you won't find 23/11/2.5 out of any other center in the East. I doubt the recent signing of Zo with affect those numbers much. In leagues that count FT%, the winner by default is Ilgauskas, who I would completely forget about if his name wasn't on the list. He has to be the most invisible good player in the league today. Compared to Shaq, he's pulling in 17/8/2, which are numbers that you won't be telling you children about, but are serviceable.

Props to: err, Ben Wallace, maybe. He's ranked number 63 and the rebounds and blocks are down, but he's closing in on 10pts a game!

Next up, the Western Conference, which clearly doesn’t have the same lack of all star caliber big men as the East.

Big Movers of the Week (Part 2)

2005-02-14T10:04:00.000-05:00

Some players with big movement up the player rater this week.

Vince Carter (Last Week: #45, This Week: #35)

Carter's amazing run continues, as he jumps up 10 places in the player rankings this week, to #35. While the points are impressive (he's averaging 35 in his last five games – including a 43 point effort in 3 quarters), Carter has also increased his rebounding, blocks, and 3pt made over the past week (a block-and-a-half is a nice thing to have out of your guard/forward). I forgot how good Carter could be when he actually tries. So, despite years of contradictory evidence in Toronto, Carter looks to be a pretty safe buy going forward.

Stephen Jackson (Last Week: #62, This Week: #43)

When he's not beating fans in the stands or scaring me with his crazy eyes, Stephen Jackson plays a little basketball. Pretty well too. What he’ll give you is 18pts, 6 rebounds, 2 threes, and a steal and a half a game. Those numbers are similar to what a Michael Redd provides, and they are welcome on my team. The crazy eyes are not welcome, however, and it’s only a matter of time before he does something very, very bad again.

Mike James (Last Week: #150, This Week: #124)

Even down this low in the rankings, a jump of 26 spots is impressive. If this were NBA Jam, Mike James would officially be ON FIRE. Flames would fly off the ball whenever it left his hands and he'd be hitting turnaround jump shots from half court. (Speaking of which, Give Me The Rock has started an interesting exercise involving video games and the NBA). The warning signs are there for James, this past week he shot 60% from the floor and 58% from behind the arc! The problem with being on fire is that it’s only temporary, and as soon as it goes away, so does James fantasy value.

There also happens to be a logjam of guys making 10+ jumps in the rankings between #70 and #110 who deserve some attention but I don’t feel like taking the time to write about them. All the following guys made some significant jumps up the ratings. With their current rankings in parenthesis:

Raef LaFrentz (#72), Bob Sura (#75), Rasheed Wallace (#76 – Serves me right not to call him a baller), Tayshaun Prince (#82), Jeff McInnis (#85), Josh Howard (#86), Donyell Marshall (#95), Carmelo Anthony (#97), Jalen Rose (#102), and David Wesley (#109).

Big Movers of the Week (Part 1)

2005-02-12T10:15:00.000-05:00

A quick look up and down the player rater to see players moving down the rankings this week.

Moving Down:

Nazr Mohammed (Last Week:#75, This Week:#97)
It was a great run for Mohammed. Too great to last. Interesting fact: Mohammed averaged 18 minutes a game in 2003... with the Hawks! What does that say about the Knicks. I hope anyone with Mohammed traded him last month. And now he’s hurt.

Austin Croshere (Last Week:#130, This Week:#145)
It was a great run for Croshere. Too great to last. Croshere stepped in admirably for Jermaine O'Neal during his suspension, but O’Neal is back and Croshere is averaging less than 20 minutes a game. There is still a team in my league with Croshere on the bench. Drop and run.

Jim Jackson (Last Week:#76, This Week:#90)
Jackson averaged 41 minutes a game in Houston this year. He's currently averaging 25 with Phoenix. Jackson's ride down the rankings still has a ways to go. Stay away.

Marko Jaric (Last Week:#36, This Week:#49)
Another surprise for the first half of the season, Jaric is either back from injury and working off the rust, or has reinjured himself and is playing less effective through the pain. In his last 3 games, he has scored 0, 5, and 6 points. Ugly. With Shaun Livingston expected back to the lineup in a few weeks, now might be the time to move Jaric if you have him. For more on Jaric, Drop It Like It's Hot a good article on the pain Jaric must be feeling.

Jamal Crawford (Last Week:#47, This Week:#58)
The second Knick on the list this week, is Crawford's drop in the rankings temporary or a sign of things to come? The last three games that Crawford has played have been… uninspired? Bad because of a sprained ankle? There are a lot of question marks with Crawford right now. Not least of which is the lack motivation he must have playing for the worst team in the "Worst Division in the History of Sports". Besides Marbury, the Knicks feature a bunch of replaceable parts, which not only speaks to the job Isiah Thomas has done, but also screams "Stay Away" from a fantasy perspective.

Shaquille O'Neal (Last Week:#83, This Week:#94)
Points, rebounds, assists, and blocks up this week? Check. Forty-four percent from the free throw line? Check. Percentages count too (unless your in a league where they don’t, of course) and with Shaq it's just not the quality (which is horrific), but the quantity (over 10 free throws a game). The 6 for 17 night on February 5th certainly didn’t help. Shaq’s points, rebounds, assists, and blocks actually ticked up slightly this week and he still dropped in the rankings. He also "only" shot 53% from the floor this week compared to his season average of 60%. No need to worry though, the overall prognosis for Shaq is fine, he’ll soon be back right around his 80-85 spot in the player rankings, with a FT% that can sink your team.

2005-02-09T22:54:00.000-05:00

The NBA and Nike want you to vote for the "Baller of the Week" over at NBA.com. From the website:

When the Pistons face the Lakers on Thursday, Feb. 10 (8 p.m. ET, TNT), two Nikebasketball.com ballers will be front and center as Lamar Odom and Rasheed Wallace match up in the paint.

Who will be the ultimate baller at the end of the night? Which player will lead his team to victory, pour in the points, grab the rebounds and contribute those infamous intangibles that make ballers ballers. The polls are open, so vote now.

I couldn't put it better myself. But (other than the obvious answer of greedy, corporate sponsorships) the question is: Why Rasheed Wallace? Rasheed's been mediocre at best this year, and their are at least 3 Pistons more likely to "be the ultimate baller" than Rasheed. Chauncey Billups, Ben Wallace, and Rip Hamiton have all been better than Rasheed this year. For example, Rasheed is leading the Pistons in exactly 0 categories this year. Points - Hamilton. Rebounds - Big Ben. Assists - Billups. And so on.

Obviously, Nike cares about selling shoes a little more than choosing the best "baller", but if I can't trust my shoe company to give me honest info, what kind of world is this?

Spotlight On ?

2005-02-08T10:28:00.000-05:00

For no particular good reason, in a very Rob Neyer-esque exercise, I randomly selected a player to examine in this spotlight. Although my methods will remain a trade secret, I can assure you that the selection process was indeed random (Note: I was planning to mulligan the selection had it been Yao Ming or Bobby Simmons, two players I’ve already written about. Fortunately, it didn’t have to come to that).

The randomly selected player? Peja Stojakovic

To be honest, I was hoping for someone a little bit more unknown than Stojakovic, but I chose to do it this way, and I can’t deny the method. Stojakovic, as I’m sure you know, currently is a forward for the second place Sacramento Kings. He is currently ranked #27 on the player rater after finishing 2003 ranked #2! behind only Kevin Garnett. Stojakovic is good, probably a top 20 player, but his fantasy performance last year was boosted by the absence of Chris Webber for the majority of the year. The Kings’ performance, ironically, was also boosted by the absence of Webber, so Stojakovic was the case of fantasy performance meshing with team performance (hello Stephon Marbury!).

But all of that is old news. This year, Peja’s been slowed by a few different events. He’s missed 6 games with back spasms, Webber has returned as the Kings’ alpha dog and been relatively healthy (for him), the trade for Cuttino Mobley will take more shots out of Peja’s hands, and I’m sure he misses Jackie Christie. The results are disappointing to anyone who expected Stojakovic to come close to duplicating what he did last year. However, upon closer inspection, his 2004/2005 stats look very similar to his 2002/2003 stats. We may have found an established level here. There’s no shame in only being a top 20-25 fantasy player rather than #2 (I’d take it). But I wouldn’t look for Stojakovic’s return to the top, unless Webber goes down again for the season (chances: 50-50?).

What does that all add up to? I’m not quite sure. If you have a team looking to take a risk, Stojakovic might be your man. Peja was hurt, but now he’s back. Webber’s playing, but fragile. If Webber goes down for an extended period, Peja’s a good investment. If Webber hobbles through the rest of the season, Peja probably won’t get any better. So, the question is, how confident are you in Webber’s knees?

Will the Real Dan Dickau Please Stand Up?

2005-02-04T11:21:00.000-05:00

The rise of Dan Dickau from fantasy afterthought to hot commodity has been examined in many other places, here is one example. I don’t need to join the chorus. However, since Dickau’s rise makes Vinsanity’s jump look small in comparison AND since I shortsightedly left off Dickau off my post about guys moving up the rankings, it’s time I give Dickau some attention.

Looking at the updated player rankings (as of today), Dickau has moved up to #105 from #157 two weeks ago and #120 just three days ago! That’s what you call the express lane. Since Dickau started from such a low position, while riding pine at the start of the season, being ranked #105 doesn’t do him justice. Because the Dickau of today is in a very different position than the Dickau of November, if you’ll bear with me, I’ll take an analytical view of Dickau to gauge his value right now.

Simply, we can take Dickau’s 31 games as a Hornet, and pretend that’s what he’s done for the entire year. These stats are:

	GP	MIN	FGP	3PT	FTP	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Hornet Dickau	31	30.5	43.0	1.4	85.2	3.1	4.4	1.1	0.0	13.9

When plugged into the player rater, Hornet Dickau comes out as the #73 rated player, right behind Andre Iguodala and PJ Brown. Not bad. But, with Baron Davis out and Dickau in the starting lineup, this exercise can be taken even further by only looking at Dickau’s stats as a starter. They are:

	GP	MIN	FGP	3PT	FTP	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Starter Dickau	13	37.8	42.2	1.5	68.8	3.5	6.7	1.7	0.1	16.4

We are getting into smaller sample sizes here, but Starter Dickau would rank #46 on the rater, right behind our friend, Vince Carter. Nice company indeed. But even under a best case scenario (for Dickau) – such as Baron Davis getting traded – Starter Dickau may be playing a little over his head. The good news for Dan’s fans is that Hornet Dickau probably isn’t, and the real Dickau might play out the rest of the year ranked somewhere in between his alter egos.

Movin On Up Even More

2005-02-03T09:54:00.000-05:00

In yesterday’s post about guys who are moving up the player rankings, I inexplicably forgot about Jason Kidd, who is fully back from injury and playing big minutes. For example, look at this sweet line from last night.

Min	3Pt	Off	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	Pts
32	7-9	2	3	4	3	0	25

Kidd (Last Week #51 This Week #34)
Kidd is back from his knee surgery about 18 times faster than Chris Webber or Allan Houston. Houston had surgery in both knees, so I’ll cut him some slack. But Webber, day-to-day all year? Kidd’s last week looked something like: 17 pts, 9 assists, 6.6 rebounds, 3 threes, and 1.6 steals a game. Besides the 3’s those numbers are comparable to last year, when Kidd was a top 20 player. Moving forward, Kidd looks healthy and like a good buy.

Movin on Up

2005-02-02T15:11:00.000-05:00

A quick stroll up and down the player rater rankings to see who is on the rise. Some crazy movement by players this week.

Vince Carter (Last Week: #96, This Week: #56)
Wow. So we know at least one person in the U.S. really likes life in New Jersey. Carter jumps up 40 spots in the player rankings this week. Now, one could argue that Carter never belonged that low to begin with, and that would be correct, but for those of you out there who have held onto Carter through his half-assed, half-efforts this year, it looks like your patience is being rewarded. Over the past 5 games, he’s averaging 26 pts, 7.4 assists, 2 steals, 1.8 threes, and 1.8 blocks a game. That’s more like it. Now, if he could only work on that injury problem.

Udonis Haslem (Last Week: #98, This Week: #77)
Who would you rather have on your fantasy team, Udonis Haslem or Shaq? Shaq has played healthy AND well this year, but (considering FT%) he’s still only ranked #93 on the rater. Haslem meanwhile, is quietly putting together a solid sophomore season. No ESPN highlight reels from Haslem, but what he does give you is 12 points, 9 rebounds, 54% from the floor, and 83% from the line (Not bad for a big man - maybe he should give Shaq a few tips). You could do a lot worse than picking up Haslem for your team (again, Shaq for example).

Damon Stoudamire (Last Week: #74, This Week: #54)
The magic isn’t gone just yet. What does 20+ points, 4 threes, 5.4 rebounds, 6 assists, and 100% from the line get you? Why, a 20 place jump in the rankings. While there are problems in Blazerland, Stoudamire continues to burn it up at a pace his running mate, Nick Van Exel couldn’t sustain for very long. Stoudamire owners: Now might be the time to sell… but then again, what do I know.

Caron Butler (Last Week: #90, This Week: #73)
Remember that time when Kobe sprained his ankle and Lamar Odom took over the Lakers? What? That’s not what happened? Right, it’s been Butler, not Odom, who has picked up his game while Kobe’s been out with an injury. Over the last 5 games: 18 pts, 5.4 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 2 steals, and 93% from the line. The scary thing? That’s pretty much what he did as a rookie 2 years ago. This could be the start of a beautiful friendship.

Kyle Korver (Last Week: #75, This Week: #59)
Hey, it’s a 3 point shooter who can actually shoot over 40%! Korver is known for the three (make that a game winner, please), but over the last 5 games, he’s averaging 15.6 pts, 6.4 rebounds, 3.6 assists, and a block per game. All solid, but not spectacular, numbers made much sweeter by the fact that Korver has 126 threes so far this year.

Spotlight On: Bobby Simmons

2005-01-31T22:27:00.000-05:00

Full disclosure: I have Bobby Simmons in a league, so I may be pulling for his success a little irrationally, especially since he's a Clipper. This is your warning.

Probably best known for his co-staring role on the Sports Guy’s Page 2 feature, Behind the Bench, Bobby Simmons is why I love fantasy basketball. First,

The Ego Boost
A talented predictor of future player performance I am not. I drafted Brent Barry and traded away Chris Bosh right before the Vince Carter trade. So, I feel pretty good about picking out Simmons off wavers after the first week of play. I felt I could ride Simmons hot start for a few weeks. Except he kept it going, and going, and now he might ride it through the rest of the season.

Second, and more importantly,

He’s Greater Than the Sum of His Parts
Currently ranked an unbelievable #38 on the rater for an 8 category league, you can look at Simmons stats and wonder how it all adds up. 16pts, 6.6 rebounds, 2.9 assists; no one is mistaking him for Kevin Garnett. But upon further inspection, he’s 47% from the floor, 89% from the line, and he’s averaging 1.4 steals, and a half a three a game. Again, you might wonder how that puts him ranked ahead of big name players like (pre-injury) Pau Gasol, Andre Miller, Lamar Odom, and Ben Wallace. Well, it just all adds up. The percentages and the steals help quite a bit, but even the things he doesn’t do as well (blocks, assists) he does good enough to not to hurt your team that badly. And all this from a guy who was not even going to start at the beginning of the year. I love that I guy like Bobby Simmons can go out and hustle his way to fantasy (not to mention NBA) relevance.

Fallout from the Al Jefferson Injury

2005-01-30T16:52:00.000-05:00

Celtics activate Tom Gugliotta's corpse.

Props to Jannero Pargo

2005-01-30T13:55:00.000-05:00

I recently wrote about fantasy basketball black holes who hurt your team more than an empty roster spot would. Well, it was brought to my attention by Shep at the highly recommended blog - Give Me The Rock - that Jannero Pargo busted out the other day. On January, 27th, against the Bobcats, he scored 14 points and had 2 assists in 13 minutes! He also shot 7 of 10 from the floor. Well, with that transcendent performance, Pargo became a marginally productive player, or at least one that jumped out of black hole status. He is currently ranked at #429 on the player rater, ahead of such notables as Etan Thomas (#430) and Jahidi White (#434).

So, you heard it here first, grab Pargo off your league's waver wire immediately... No, not really. But I just wanted to give the man credit where credit is due.

Coming soon, with apologies to Jannero Pargo, actual relevant player analysis again.

Why are you reading this

2005-01-30T13:09:00.000-05:00

When you could be at Basketball Monster. Drop It Like It's Hot, a well done and recommended basketball blog, recently highlighted Basketball Monster - and like most things in my life - I'll join the party late.

Every fantasy basketball GM should be a frequent visitor to Basketball Monster. It has just about every tool you need to run your team, including very cool and fully adjustable player rankings. If you're in an 8 category league starting Shaq, Yao Ming, and Carmelo Anthony and you want to know why your team isn't better, check out the player rankings at Basketball Monster. You can also compare trades based on your league settings. A few teams in my league clearly aren't utilizing this. I personally like the schedule grid, such a simple idea, but such a time saving tool for a weekly league.

So, Basketball Monster. Look it up. Become friends. It will treat you right.

Updated Player Rater

2005-01-29T17:22:00.000-05:00

Updated Rater as of 1.28.05. Lebron James takes the top stop away from Kevin Garnett - for what could be a long run at the top.

Now that's a black hole

2005-01-28T18:47:00.000-05:00

How bad does a player have to be to be worst than nothing? That is, how can a fantasy player actually hurt your team more than an empty roster spot? Well, it helps to only play a few games. Play enough games and eventually a few shots might go in, a rebound might fall in your lap, or something like that. Also, you have to do nothing in the games you play in. Don't score, please don't rebound, and no need for d. But, do miss some shots. As many as you can.

Anyway, there are currently four players that are averaging less than all 0's on the rater. They are:

Ibo Kutluay
Brandin Knight
Jannero Pargo
Lonny Baxter

Each has played less than 5 games and done close to nothing in the games they've played in. And each has missed enough shots so that their FG% and FT% hurts your team more than their counting stats make up for it. Lonny Baxter is probably the most interesting case. "Playing" in four games for the Hornets, he's scored the most points (10) and has the most rebounds (8) out of the group, but he's shooting at a 27% clip and hasn't made a free throw all season. Just in case you were wondering, he was drafted in the second round by the Bulls in 2002.

What does this matter to your fantasy team? Unless your playing in a 118 team league - Nothing. Just thought it was interesting a player could be bad enough to be worse than nothing.

Put me in coach

2005-01-25T08:30:00.000-05:00

In fantasy basketball it’s all about minutes, minutes, minutes. Of course, there are exceptions to the rule – the immovable Rodney Rogers is averaging 27 minutes a game and the invisible Mark Blount is averaging a whopping 30. But, the more guys play, the more likely they are to rack up all those great counting stats. And the reverse is true, no matter how talented someone is, they need the minutes to be on the fantasy radar.

There are only 11 players in the top 100 on the rater who are averaging less than 30 minutes a game. That means 89% of the top 100 are playing over 30 minutes. The highest rated player who is currently averaging less than 30 minutes a game is Manu Ginobili, who is currently averaging 29 minutes and is currently ranked #32. Not bad at all. But you have to go all the way down to #54 to find the next highest rated player, Jason Terry, clocking in at 27 minutes a game. Down the list a little more you’ll find Jason Williams (#64 at 28 minutes), Kelvin Cato (#69 at 27 minutes), Sam Cassell (#72 at just a hair under 30 minutes), and Kyle Korver (#75 at 29 minutes and change).

All the guys above are talented players and are worthy of being on fantasy rosters. But it makes you wonder what they could do with an extra 10 minutes on the floor each game.

Big Decliners of the Week

2005-01-23T09:44:00.000-05:00

A quick look at some of the players taking big falls down the player rater this week.

Keith Van Horn (Last Week: #59, This Week: #84)

Van Horn is the biggest tumbler this week, falling 25 places on the rater. He is currently playing limited minutes while coming back from injury. Hopefully you haven’t had Van Horn in your lineup while he’s been playing 10 minutes a game, but when he increases his minutes – he played 23 on Friday – he’ll be a worthy starter again. Expect him to work his way back to 50ish on the rater when he gets healthy.

Emeka Okafor (Last Week: #77, This Week: #100)

There has been talk of Okafor hitting the fabled rookie wall, and last week, someone could look at his points, blocks, and shooting and see that they were all trending downward. However, after Thursday (18pts, 19rebs, 3blks) and Friday (24pts, 15rebs, 2blks) Okafor looks more like a wall than someone hitting one. His dominating rookie season should continue and he’ll be a fine fantasy player moving forward.

Carmelo Anthony (Last Week: #82, This Week: #97)

Anthony finished his rookie season ranked #53 on the player. He finished 2003 ahead of Dwayne Wade (#60). Oh, how far away that seems. What’s the surprise here, that he is playing so much worse his second year, or that he was so good last year? Trade. Him. Now.

Other decliners include Bob “Rollercoaster Ride” Sura (#69 to #83), Shaquille “Category Killer” O'Neal (#61 to #71), Nazr “I shouldn’t be playing this well anyway” Mohammed (#54 to #65), Ben “Where’s the O?” Wallace (#52 to #60), Chauncey “Second half swoon” Billups (#20 to #26), and Allen “Running Man” Iverson (#7 to #11).

Big Movers (Part 2)

2005-01-20T20:46:00.000-05:00

Jason Williams (Last Week: #81, This Week: #64)

Back from injury and playing well, William's scoring, 3’s, and shooting percentage are up big time this past week. However, his minutes remain low (at 28 minutes/game), and as a result, his run appears to be temporary. I don’t see William’s minutes increasing on the Grizzles this year, and there is a more than a slight chance of him getting injured again, so now might be a good time to shop Williams around your league for someone of equal value (Nazr Mohammed, Andre Iguodala, Joe Johnson).

Donyell Marshall (Last Week: NR, This Week: #87)

Speaking of Donyell (see last post) – talk about an enigma. Is he going to play 10 minutes or 30? 5 points or 20? I don’t envy those of you with Donyell on your team, its definitely a rollercoaster ride. While his 2003 season should be distant memory by now, Marshall may be finally turning the corner after the Vince Carter trade. His minutes still aren’t there (23 minutes/game this past week – below his season average), but now might be the time to either take advantage of a frustrated owner in your league, or take a flyer on Marshall off wavers. In my league, someone recently traded Kenny Thomas and Juwan Howard for Marshall, and I have to say, I’d probably would do the same. No guarantees here, but if Marshall gets the minutes, you will be happy with the results.

Big Movers (Part 1)

2005-01-20T09:59:00.000-05:00

Taking a look at the players who made a big jump up the player rater this past week.

Damon Stoudamire (Last Week: #97, This Week: #74)

There is still a lot of room for movement up and down the charts at this point in the season, as experienced by Stoudamire this past week. And it wasn’t just because of his 54 point explosion on the 14th. With injuries to many of the Blazers, Stoudamire has picked up his scoring, 3’s (4.6/game the past 5 games compared to 1.9 for the season), and, believe it or not, assists (up by 0.5/game over the past week). Stoudamire will most likely be headed right back the charts down once the Blazers get healthy, or at least healthier, but there’s nothing wrong with enjoying the ride while it lasts.

Tayshaun Prince (Last Week: #99, This Week: #80)

Prince has stepped up his game over the past month. Is he turning into the player that everyone expected last year? I wouldn’t count on it, but he’s one of those nice Donyell Marshall type players that quietly does it all – including shooting for good percentages – and I would expect his stats to level off around where they are now. He should be a solid contributor to many fantasy teams down the stretch.

Cuttino Mobley (Last Week: #73, This Week: #56)

Mobley could benefit greatly from the trade to Sac. If he keeps getting the minutes (30+ so far), look for a possible return to his 2003 numbers with Houston. His assists, especially for a SG, could take nice bounce. I wouldn’t expect 4 blocks every night like did against the Clippers, but with Bobby Jackson out for the rest of the year, now might be a good time to trade for Mobley.

Updated Player Rater

2005-01-19T17:25:00.000-05:00

Updated Player Rater including stats through 1.18.2005.

Fliptastic

2005-01-18T22:33:00.000-05:00

From Rotowire:
Ronald Murray: Getting Short-Term Minutes. Murray will continue to see more minutes as long as Rashard Lewis is out with injury.
I'm glad the man is getting some work.

Dog and Pony Show

2005-01-17T23:41:00.000-05:00

I have a tough time making trades in my leagues. If someone is playing well, I can’t help but thinking that their good play will continue for the rest of the year (this happens to be a common phenomenon). It makes me hesitant to pull the trigger. I even have a tough time trading someone like Nick Van Exel, who is clearly playing on borrowed time while Shareef Abdur-Rahim and Darius Miles are out. So, despite my better judgment, here are some players you would be better off trading from your fantasy team.

1. Chris Webber: Webber is like a drug. You know he’s bad for you, but you can’t help it. When he plays, he’s awesome. He is currently averaging 21.5 pts, 9.5 rebs, and 4.9 assists a game. You will be hard pressed to find those numbers from many players out there. And he’s only missed 3 games so far this year. But he’s playing on borrowed time. That knee is going to give out sometime. And you’re better off trading Webber for someone like Andrei Kirilenko, Brad Miller, or Elton Brand while Webber is still healthy and planning well.

2. Yao Ming: See below. He’s got the name, but the stats aren’t there.

3. Nazr Mohammed: Mohammed has played better than anyone could have hoped so far this year with 9 rebounds and 12.5 points per game. He is currently ranked #54 on the rater, and if you can find anyone willing to give up someone close to that value, make the deal. Odds are that he can’t keep up this pace all year.

4. Dwayne Wade: I am not going to deny that Wade has been amazing this year. He’s averaging over 5 rebounds, 7 assists, and 23 points per game. Those numbers are very tough to trade. But he’s also nursing some significant injuries right now, including his ankle, knee, ribs, and back. Scary. He’s missed 2 games resting his injuries so far, and it could be worthwhile to trade Wade while his value is at it’s highest.

Spotlight on Yao

2005-01-17T08:34:00.000-05:00

Did you take Yao Ming (currently #43 on the player rater) over someone like say, Brad Miller, in your draft? It happened in mine. Maybe you expected him to raise his game this year once freed from the shackles of the selfish Steve Francis. Well, then you weren’t prepared for Ming to ruin into Tracy McGrady – who is making Steve Francis look like Steve Nash. Ming’s rebounds, blocks, assists, and percentages are down across the board from last year, and he is currently averaging only 0.8! assists per game. In a league I’m in, someone recently traded Ming for Chris Bosh and Kevin Cato. While some people laughed at the deal, Bosh alone is outplaying Ming. He has the big name, but if you can find someone in your fantasy league who will still take Ming off your hands for a marquee player, go ahead and pull the trigger.

This year in fantasy basketball... so far

2005-01-14T21:56:00.000-05:00

Looking at the player rater (below), you may see some interesting things:

1. Top player this year - Kevin Garnett. No surprise there. While the Wolves are having a pretty lackluster year, Garnett is putting together another dominating fantasy season. It helps to lead the league with 15! rebounds per game.

2. You may have noticed a dominating player missing from the top of the list. Big guy, made some rap albums, and bad movies, goes by his first name, you may have heard of him. Yes, Shaq is less than a dominating fantasy player, and it is all because of his free throw percentage. It really is that bad. The rater weights FG% and FT% based upon the number of shots that the player takes. And Shaq takes a lot of free throws. 10.5 a game to be exact. Enough to ruin a category for your team. Shaq is currently rated at 59 on the rater.

3. Lebron James (ranked #2) and Dwayne Wade (#7). Wow.

4. Best fantasy player under the radar - Larry Hughes. Leads the league in steals (2.8/game) while providing very good scoring (21.1 pts) and assists (5.3).

5. Best rookie? Andre Iguodala. Yes, really. He doesn't score any points, but he'll give you steals (1.7/game - 9th in the league), blocks (0.7/game), rebounds (5.6), and percentages.