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2007 Fantasy Basketball Previews

It's that time of year again. Yes, it's already time to think about utterly dominating your fantasy basketball league. Over at Give Me The Rock, Nels and I will be pumping out fantasy previews over the course of the summer, from worst to first. What they lack in "facts" and "insight" are more than made up for with gratuitous hardcore nudity.

Eastern Conference

Atlantic
Boston Celtics
New Jersey Nets
New York Knicks
Philadelphia 76ers
Toronto Raptors

Central
Chicago Bulls
Cleveland Cavaliers
Detroit Pistons
Indiana Pacers
Milwaukee Bucks

Southeast
Atlanta Hawks
Charlotte Bobcats
Miami Heat
Orlando Magic
Washington Wizards

Western Conference

Southwest
Dallas Mavericks
Houston Rockets
Memphis Grizzlies
New Orleans Hornets
San Antonio Spurs

Northwest
Denver Nuggets
Minnesota Timberwolves
Portland Trail Blazers
Seattle SuperSonics
Utah Jazz

Pacific
Golden State Warriors
Los Angeles Clippers
Los Angeles Lakers
Phoenix Suns
Sacramento Kings

Hakeem "The Dream" Olajuwons' Greatest Hits

"It takes a big man to admit he made a mistake. And I am that big man"

-Michael Scott, The Office

Ok, ok, I admit that I’m not always right all the time every time. I may have called Hakeem Olajuwon “boring” in this post on the 20 greatest fantasy seasons since 1979. And good old “Anonymous” called me on it in the comments. See, that kind of thing happens when you try to summarize the last 25 years of fantasy basketball in 1,000 words or less. Everyone appears boring when juxtaposed against Michael Jordan and Dominique Wilkins. Plus, unfairly or not, I will forever have the aged and creaky 2000-2002 Olajuwon stuck in my mind when I think of The Dream.

The truth is that Olajuwon was anything but boring. And to make amends for that misstatement, I offer you the following Olajuwon video, which showcases everything his game had to offer. Those power blocks, power dunks, that sweet jumper, his great footwork, and those quick, guard-like hands. Experience 10 minutes of “The Dream”. And watch for the insane block at 8:14 – it’s my favorite part of the video.

2006 Fantasy Basketball Previews

This summer, at Give Me The Rock, Nels and I are writing fantasy previews for all 30 teams in a slick team-by-team format. It should be required reading for every 6th grader in the county. I'll keep a running update of the teams reviewed so far:

Updated: 10/30

EAST
Atlantic
Boston Celtics
New Jersey Nets
New York Knicks
Philadelphia 76ers
Toronto Raptors

Central
Chicago Bulls
Cleveland Cavaliers
Detroit Pistons
Indiana Pacers
Milwaukee Bucks

Southeast
Atlanta Hawks
Charlotte Bobcats
Miami Heat
Orlando Magic
Washington Wizards

WEST
Southwest
Dallas Mavericks
Houston Rockets
Memphis Grizzlies
New Orleans Hornets
San Antonio Spurs

Northwest
Denver Nuggets
Minnesota Timberwolves
Portland Trail Blazers
Seattle SuperSonics
Utah Jazz

Pacific
Golden State Warriors
Los Angeles Clippers
Los Angeles Lakers
Phoenix Suns
Sacramento Kings

Effective Free Throw Percentage

Note: As usual, this article first appeared on Give Me The Rock. Check out that sweet site.

A couple of months ago, I took a shot at measuring the effect that free throw percentages have on fantasy teams. Both my mother and grandmother said it was the greatest thing they ever read short of Die Verwandlung. At the time, I ran the results for the 2006 season up through the current date (January), but now with the regular season over, we can look back at the results for the entire year.

The basic gist of the process is to weight the contribution of a player’s free throw percentage based upon the number of free throws he attempts per game compared to the league average. This puts every player on a level playing field so to speak, by adjusting each player’s percentage to what it would have to be if they attempted a league average number of free-throws (resulting in an effective free throw percentage, or EFT%). The more free throws a player attempts either above or below average, the more their EFT% will deviate from their actual FT%.

This mysterious “league” I keep referring to is the top 150 fantasy players for 2006, which jives with many of the common fantasy leagues out there (no crying if you play in something crazy like a 4 team league; take your all star roster and go home). And if you feel like reading more about EFT%, you can look at this previous article (complete with everyone’s favorite… formulas!)

And the results? Here are the top rated players in terms of EFT% for 2006.

Highest EFT% for 2006

There are basically two types of players on this list, those who shoot fewer free throws at a high percentage (Allen, Peja, Nash) and those who shoot a lot at a slightly lower percentage (Kobe, Redd, Iverson). And then there is Dirk Nowitzki. In January, it was Billups who was running with an EFT% above 100, at the end of the season it’s Dirk with a percentage of 102. Will this, coupled with his playoff performance to date and that classic stoic German demeanor… ahem, I meant stoic demeanor, result in “Dirk: Fantasy Monster” next season? Color me interested.

As far as a fantasy strategy, it is the guys with the lower percentages who shoot a lot who you should be aiming for. Many of your lesser informed opponents look at a player like Nash and see that shiny free throw percentage, with little regard to how many he actually takes. Also, by loading up your team with guys who shoot a lot of free throws and shoot them well, you will also diffuse the effect of guys with bad EFT%, much like those guys on the list below.

Lowest EFT% for 2006

A list full of big men and… Gerald Wallace? Well, there you go. Guys like Duncan, Howard, and the Wallaces are all going to end up on someone’s team, so again, having a few players with a high EFT% will help diffuse one or two of the guys on the list above. Shaq is a well known (and deserved) category killer. This list pretty much shows why. Ben Wallace, while shooting a worse percentage than Shaq, gets a pardon by only averaging 3.6 free throws a game.

By the way, if anyone has won a roto league with Shaq primarily involved, I would love to hear how it went down.

A Note About Field Goal Percentage:
Everything written about EFT% also applies to EFG%. However, the range of field goal percentages and the number shots attempted from the field (average of 11.5, std dev of 4.2) varies less than the number of free throws attempted (average of 4.2, std dev of 2.3), so EFG% stays fairly close to the standard FG% and is much less interesting to talk about. For example, Tracy McGrady, who took over 21 shots a game and made 40.6% of them, has an EFG% of 36.6%. For the most part, EFG% only varies about a percentage point or two from FG%.

The Top 20 Fantasy Seasons Ever*

Please Note: I originally posted this article in 2 parts at Give Me the Rock, Part 1 here and Part 2 here. I'd advised you to check out GMTR for this article and other cool stuff by Nels.

While waiting for LeBron to drive to the basket AGAIN, I thought I’d start out my time at Give Me the Rock with the audacious task of ranking the top 20 greatest fantasy seasons of all time (and by proxy, the top fantasy players of all time). But as my momma always said, “go f**king balls out, or don’t go at all bitch”. I might be paraphrasing there.

I’ll keep this part short, but I basically created standardized rankings for every player in each season from 1979-1980 through 2006 (the years of available statistics). The scores were calculated on a per game basis and based upon a 10 team, 8 (and 9) category roto league, which means that I ranked players both with and without turnovers included. Including turnovers didn’t have that much effect on the results, so in the final results, I left them out. Only two players who fell in the top 50 were particularly affected when including turnovers. Who are they? Kudos to you if you can guess. I’ll tell you in the part 2 of this article. Players with less than 10 games played were not ranked (bye 2005 Ron Artest) and adjusted for games played (bye 1981 Magic Johnson).

Let’s start the countdown with the 11-20 ranked fantasy seasons since 1979-1980. Ratings in parenthesis.

11. Michael Jordan, 1987, (9.5)
12. Michael Jordan, 1991, (9.2)
13. Magic Johnson, 1989, (9.0)
14. David Robinson, 1994, (8.9)
15. Kevin Garnett, 2004, (8.7)
16. David Robinson, 1995, (8.6)
17. Larry Bird, 1983, (8.6)
18. Kobe Bryant, 2003, (8.5)
19. Hakeem Olajuwon, 1994, (8.5)
20. David Robinson, 1991, (8.4)

Michael Jordan, as you can imagine, shows up again in the top 10, so I won’t spend too much time on him. Surprisingly, Magic’s highest showing is at number 13. Seeing how he was a triple-double machine, I expected to see him higher. Magic’s 1989 season was his finest fantasy wise, where he averaged 22.5 points, 7.9 rebounds, and 12.8 assists (take that Steve Nash!). He also shot 91% from the free throw line. It was his blocks (only 0.3 a game in 1989) that kept him from being ranked higher that year and throughout his career.

David Robinson’s best season was in 1994, when he averaged just about 30 points a game. He also shows up at number 16 and 20. I knew Robinson was great player, but the only fantasy game I was playing back then was final fantasy, so I had no idea what a fantasy monster he was for about 6 years. Interestingly enough, his stats mimic those more recently of Tim Duncan, although Robinson’s free-throw percentage was actually pretty decent.

I think that it’s safe to say that Kevin Garnett peaked as a fantasy player in 2004. Am I assuming too much saying that it’s downhill from here? Larry Bird is another guy you might be seeing again, so we’ll skip over him for now. Kobe, Kobe, Kobe. There was a lot of talk about his scoring this year (he ended up with a 7.8 rating, which puts his 2006 at #30), but he was actually better in 2003. That made me a little curious, so I compared his 2003 to 2006. FT%, FG% were exactly the same. He also hit more 3’s and scored 5 points more a game in 2006. It was his assists, steals, and blocks this year that all went down from his career averages (and way down since 2003). Obviously, not playing with Shaq could be a cause for the drop. But, the jury’s still out on the Kobe “scoring machine” era and whether it will be a net positive or net negative on his fantasy game. He’ll make an interesting fantasy pick next year.

Finally, Olajuwon did all the things that a boring franchise big man should do and in 1994 he had a year where everything came together and won an MVP, a finals MVP, and a championship for his trouble.

So, that is the rundown from 11 to 20. Coming next, the top 10.

Part 1 of this article looked at the top 11 - 20 fantasy seasons of the past 26 years, with notable guest appearances by Magic Johnson, David Robinson, Kevin Garnett, and Kobe Bryant. Now, here is the rest of the list, only with a cool top 10 countdown this time (as before, standardized scores in parenthesis).

10. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, 1980, (9.6)
9. Michael Jordan, 1993, (9.7)
8. Hakeem Olajuwon, 1993, (10.0)
7. Larry Bird, 1985, (11.2)
6. Michael Jordan, 1990, (11.3)
5. Larry Bird, 1988, (11.5)
4. Larry Bird, 1986, (11.6)
3. Michael Jordan, 1989, (11.6)
2. Michael Jordan, 1988, (11.7)
1. Larry Bird, 1987, (11.9)

Hmmm. There are two things on this list not like the others… I wonder what they are?

Oh, what could have been? Abdul-Jabbar had some truly awesome looking seasons from 70 – 78, but since we’re only going back to the 79-80 season, it looks like he’ll have to live with #10. Even at 32, Abdul-Jabbar was able to average 24.8/10.8/4.5 and shoot 60% from the field with 3.4 blocks a game. Too bad all I remember of Kareem is a dorky old bald guy with short shorts who decided to sport some slick alienish looking goggles on the court.

Hakeem Olajuwon, last seen with the 19th best season, makes the list again with his 1993 season. He basically averaged slightly more blocks and rebounds in 1993 than in 1994. And that’s all I have to say about Olajuwon.

Remember the video game, Jordan vs. Bird? I loved the slam dunk contest… HERE COMES A DOCTOR J! Anyway, the list finishes off with a little Jordan vs. Bird action. They both appear four times, basically trading off spots (Jordan at 2, 3, 6, and 9 and Bird at 1, 4, 5, and 7). Jordan, version 1988 to 1990, averaged about 34/7/7 with 3 steals and close to a block a game. On the other hand, Larry Legend, version 1985 to 1988, averaged 28/9.5/7 with a crazy amount of 3’s (for the time) and close to 2 steals and a block a game. Bird is also the ONLY player in the past 2+ decades to have positive contributions in each of the 8 categories, which is basically saying that he was better than the average fantasy starter in every facet of the game. And he did it not only once, which still would have been amazing, but three different years (1983, 1985, and 1987). That’s just insane.

So, there are the top 20 fantasy seasons of recent history. I’ll play out the question of Jordan vs. Bird later. Maybe a little game of one-one-one would settle it?

Oh, and I said I would tell you which two top 50 players were really hurt by including turnovers in the calculations. They would be Magic Johnson and Charles Barkley.

*Ever means since 1979.

An Offer I Couldn't Refuse

For all my millions of readers out there (ahem...) I just wanted to throw a shout out to Give Me the Rock, the blog I'll be now spending most of my time writing for. After communicating with Nels, it was clear that I could accomplish more (and be more motivated) as part of a team than by myself. My 61 posts in 2 years to Nels' 300ish makes that fairly obvious.

I still may stop in here from time to time, to throw out especially arcane or involved analysis that will most likely interest nobody. Or maybe when Nels wises up to my shit and kicks me off his blog. So, that's a good reason to check back in, right?

Until then, if you are actually reading this, than I would advise checking out Give Me the Rock for stuff that's at least 2.5 times better than this.

Peace.

The Clippers

I'm short on interesting analysis, but watching the Denver/Clippers games, and I gots to say that Kaman's hair is freaking the shit out of me. It's a mullet out of freakin control.